How will Syria manage its relationship with Israel at this stage? | policy

It is no secret that there are no negotiations between Syria and Israel in some capitals, but the question about whether these negotiations are limited to security arrangements regarding the developments that took place after the war on the impact of Israel’s occupation of a wide border in southern Syria, or is it a prelude to a comprehensive peace agreement, in light of an American move aimed at re -engineering the region by extinguishing the hotbeds of tension, allowing Washington to reshape the regional reality, including, including Cons corresponding to and seeing her global role in the next stage?

Context and timing

Negotiations between Damascus and Tel Aviv, or what is correct to call “calm initiative”, come as part of a broader context of an American strategy, and Western consequences, to maintain an active role in controlling the effects of the international scene, and influencing his future directions, in light of the emergence of the Chinese player with a strength that has become over all international geopolitical joints, spreading his promising projects in each corner, foresight By removing the West from the leadership position in the leadership of the international system.

The developments have proven that the Middle Eastern scene involves American interests, if it does not exceed the interests of Washington in Southeast Asia, which has allocated huge resources. In light of an American appreciation that facing the Chinese danger is not to leave large voids for him to extend it, in exchange for his siege in the China Sea, and the deserts of the Middle East, its sailor and its waterways, as important elements in this geopolitical game that has a range to include the whole world.

Accordingly, in light of the balance of the new global powers, after Chinese technology has reduced the differences significantly, the Trump administration finds itself forced to search for new mechanisms to ensure continued excellence, and this was confirmed by Trump’s visit to the Arab Gulf states, and the positive positions of its demands, as Syria’s support was its primary axis.

Negotiation workshop

There can be a “negotiating workshop” whose activities were launched in more than one regional and international capital: Abu Dhabi, Baku, Tel Aviv, and possibly other places. What is going on until the moment seems to be a test or a dating stage between the negotiators, and the presentation of each party its thesis, which is often with a high ceiling, is then trimmed to agree with logic and reality. Nothing was nominated for what was going on in the scenes of these negotiations, but there are many indications of their launch, including the interruption of the Israeli bombing and the accelerated American openness to Damascus, as well as the political discourse changed towards the new Syrian administration in both Tel Aviv and Washington.

This does not mean that things are going smoothly and that we have a few meters away from reaching solid understandings, as much as it means creating an appropriate environment for negotiations, starting to calm the field and stop the Israeli media attack against the new Syrian authority, and it has already witnessed a transformation, from a speech that calls for the lack of confidence in this authority to a speech confirming the unwillingness to interfere with the Syrian affairs, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister, Jadaoun Saar.

It is natural for the focus to be at this stage on the security files, and that negotiations specialize in security issues, on this, the negotiations take a purely technical nature, away from ideology, political positions and various sensitivities, especially since the two countries have a continuous history of security arrangements that were updated after every development, and the latest procedures were the buffer zone that followed the October war in 1973, The two parties adhered to it until the lion regime fell.

Damascus need for peace

Since the arrival of the new administration of the Authority in Damascus, it has declared in an underestimating manner that stability and peace are standing at the top of its priority schedule in the next stage, and therefore is not concerned with the game of conflict that the Assad regime has been involved, at least as a result of its affiliation with the “resistance alliance” and facilitating Iran’s anti -Israel activity, and it is clear that the Sharia administration read well the transformation in the regional mood rejecting the continuation of wars, and the logic of Iran imposed by Iran Next, she tried to adapt to the requirements of this transformation.

But also, the requirements of the stage, and the necessity of getting out of reality, the least said that it is a complex reality to the fullest extent, imposed on Damascus to adopt the option to search for the opportunity of peace, to escape from a real parallel and not virtual reality, called it the economic collapse and international isolation, may become the primary definition of future Syria.

Damascus realizes that it has sensitive accounts in the equations that are being established in the region, and that it is subsequent to a larger regional rib, and perhaps an invisible point in a circle of strong regional actors, economically, politically and military, and that it is obliged to play under the shadows of these forces, as long as the game has entered without power tools, at all levels, and with a heavy pregnancy of crises and needs.

Accordingly, Damascus saw that the engagement within the engineering carried out by Washington, in coordination with the regional actors, in the Arab Gulf and Turkey, is an opportunity that she wanted to capture, and a delegate to get out of the circle of marginalization and destruction, as stability cannot be achieved next to an entity that is believed to have the corner of the region, and investment funds cannot be attracted without a stable situation, which means converting Syria into the model of the failed state, which is the nightmare that tried to rule The new Syria escapes from it, while realizing that it will not be in their possession, and they are sitting on negotiating tables, other than making concessions.

Israel and peace be upon him

This is not the appropriate moment that Israel desires to engage in a peace process with Syria, neither the Israeli mood nor the influencing elites in the possibility of this path now, and Israeli thinking at this stage elsewhere, where Israel wakes up, after the Flood of Al -Aqsa, on a different strategic reality whose memory has not seen an example since its establishment, not even after the 1967 war when the gates of the Arab cordial countries collapsed and now the Israeli tanks can Transit to capitals without any logistical or military obstacles other than an impediment to international balances in the midst of the Cold War and the borders of influence drawn between American and sophisticated regions.

Israeli ambition in Syria is greater than peace that may be retracted one day if the data changes, as Israel’s preferences tend to make entities parallel to the Syrian state, entities that depend on their survival on Israeli support, and they push Damascus and its rulers to completely retreat from demanding lands occupied by Israel, and increases the south where abundant water, agricultural lands and the workforce that farms and workshops need in Haifa, Golan, Galile Israeli leaders that achieving this ambition will not cost much, and all that Tel Aviv will oversee the management of conflicts in southern Syria to serve its geopolitical interests.

But the sudden development was in Turkey and the Arab Gulf states on change in Syria, and prompted Washington to embrace it and make it an interest for American national security, which sparked the suspicion of Israel from the possibility of getting it out of the arrangements that are actually greater than merely absorbing Syria, as much as it is a formation of a Middle Eastern reality linked to wider global circles, and geopolitical projects on a larger scale, and therefore Israel enters the stage of understandings with Damascus as a kind The test of the paths of regional and international moves, especially after they were marginalized by President Trump’s recent movements in the region, and the state of estrangement with Europe, which in turn began intense engagement in the corridors of the Middle Eastern files.

Is the deal imminent?

Based on these introductions, what is going on between Damascus and Tel Aviv does not seem to be final peace negotiations, as much as they are discussions to agree on a new security framework after Israel retracted the previous arrangements, and there are many factors that confirm this possibility:

• A significant imbalance of power prevents Damascus from going to peace negotiations that need strengths that force Israel to waive the Golan.
• The new Syrian administration needs a longer period of time to make a step to conclude a peace agreement with Israel, despite the preference of large sectors of Syrians to focus on economic aspects and reconstruction, and thus move away from external wars; The image is still unclear for the new regime in Damascus, and thus it is a peace process, during which geographical concessions may make a dangerous adventure.
• Israel does not need a peace arising from obligations to give up lands occupied in the Golan, and it is in the interest of Israel to keep the security situation fragile on its northern forehead, and to keep Damascus under pressure from the sense of insecurity from the side of Israel, until favorable conditions for obtaining great concessions in reassurance.
• The parties that embrace the new Syrian regime: regional and international, do not raise the issue of reaching a peace agreement between Damascus and Tel Aviv, at this stage, because they realize that the conditions are immature, and that the difference in any stage of negotiation may blow up struggling rounds that overthrow the fragile Syrian stability, so it is better to reach strict security arrangements between the two parties that guarantee calm until a peace framework is applicable.