Expectations about the Iranian response to Israel policy

US President Donald Trump said: “I was previously informed of the attacks, and there are no surprises, but the United States is not involved militarily, and it hopes that Iran will return to the negotiating table soon,” said US President Donald Trump.

This, and Israel announced on Friday, June 13th, to launch “preventive strikes” against Iran, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz.

For his part, Iranian official television reported strong explosions in Tehran and in separate areas of the country.

In the wake of these developments, Israel declared a state of emergency, as the Israeli army reported to change the civil and public safety guidelines to “basic activities”, which includes the prohibition of educational activities, gatherings and presence in the workplace, and oil prices jumped by 5% after the Israeli strike of Iran.

Returning to what Trump said it seems to eat and oppose the thing, considering that the strikes were carried out with his knowledge, but his army is not involved in it.

This scenario aims to push Iran to accommodate the strike, especially since he stressed on more than one occasion that his country will not allow it to own a nuclear bomb.

On the other hand, he gave her the advice of returning to the negotiations, because what was informed of it is not only the timing of the strike, but it seems to ensure that the strike achieved its goals and worked to disable the nuclear program.

But there are those who ask questions to the American president: “As long as the raids achieve their goals, on what basis does Iran call for negotiation after losing its nuclear and missile file?”

The “strike” was expected, especially since Tel Aviv sent clear messages to Tehran from Lebanon, after its warplanes launched, on June 5, a series of violent and broad attacks, which were considered the first in terms of the size of the areas it affected, and in the number of strikes on Hezbollah sites after the signing of the armistice agreement on January 27 last.

The attack came hours after the visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araraqi to Beirut, in which he confirmed the cohesion of the axis, during which he sent threat messages to Israel from the southern suburbs of Beirut, the stronghold of Hezbollah.

Araqji’s visit to Beirut carried a strategic dimension represented in the Iranian assertion of the cohesion of its axis, and that the war that Israel has fought over more than a year and a half could not cut the arteries of Iranian influence in the region.

This is what Araqji confirmed in that visit, but the scene that the world woke up after the Israeli strikes on Iran, prompted a response from Katz confirming that his army previously dealt with Iran’s arms in the region, and today it is dealing with Iran directly.

Between the opposite response and response, the region oscillates on the hypothesis of a wide war, but is the Iranian capable or ready, or will the message of the bombing and Trump understand together, and turn it into tactical attacks that guarantee him to preserve the power of his influence, here lies the problem?

The “Exius” website quoted an Israeli official that many major military commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, led by the assassination of the commander of the Guard and senior nuclear scientists.

The Israeli website “Walla” also reported the assassination of the Revolutionary Guard Commander Hussein Salami in the capital, Tehran, in an Israeli raid carried out as part of a series of air strikes on different areas of the country.

Clear the goals of those Israeli strikes that were carried out on Iran, by choosing sites and people. Israel and the United States have always threatened not to allow Iran to possess the nuclear bomb, and the two parties have always been accused of the Revolutionary Guards to stop the intensification of the manufacture of ballistic missiles of destructive capacity and long -term.

That is why the Israeli message was clear through these strikes and hitting all Iranian nuclear facilities and its manufacturers of types of these missiles, and it is clear that it affected Iran’s external arms of the Revolutionary Guards activity and its officers.

Israel does not want a comprehensive war with Iran, because it is not able to enter it, but it depends on the American player to reset the situation after carrying out the attacks.

The American not only seeks to control the Iranian response, which will not be eaten, in light of the US Central Command’s official statement, that his army is able to deter Iran’s missiles that will be directed to Tel Aviv.

The American does not want to paralyze Iran militarily and existentially, but rather to disrupt its development and superiority over the countries of the region. The American equation will continue to depend on the principle of the “four pillars”, namely: Israeli (with distinction), Iranian, Gulf, and Turkish. As any defect in these pillars will endanger American interests in the region, and will also hinder its efforts to devote its presence and influence.

For this reason, Trump’s invitation came, and put the “pleasure” on the Iranian stadium, which was put in the blow between two best paths. Either Iran will implement its counselor’s promise and return an earthquake to Tel Aviv, and this requires an international support and an ally of weight on the international scene, and that is what Tehran lacks at this stage.

The Chinese is not careful to defend Iran and its interests, although Tehran is a strategic partner in the region, and the Russian was more clear than the Chinese side in not helping Tehran in any war it leads, and this came from the words of the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, André Rodinko, who stressed that his country is not obligated to support Iran if the war with Israel and America entered in the region.

Either she goes in the option of her traditional policies that adopt the principle of “patience and insight” and is satisfied with directing studied strikes according to American request, as she realizes that any response to Israel or the American rules or interests in the region is a form of suicide.

That is why it has become certain that the Iranian response will not be through strikes on Israel’s nuclear facilities, despite its previous announcement of the intelligence disclosure in which it mentioned the extent of violating the sensitive Tel Aviv nuclear facilities and trying to reveal some documents in the media.

Also, any direct war will have bounces at the Iranian interior, as the regime cannot blind about the “fragile” solidarity in the ties between the major majority of the popular base and between the pyramid and leadership.

The Israeli strikes that carried out the pyramid of the source of the decision, which is the Revolutionary Guards, as it assassinated nuclear scientists, in the event that the goal is not the Iranian people or its infrastructure, but its nuclear program.

Iran today sees that it must stay away from the “action and reaction” equation, even if its army considers that it received orders from its guide to respond to Israel, but the question remains how it will respond and who will target its missiles, because any Iranian berarine to a wide war is the demand of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.

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