Al -Jazeera Net Correspondents
Beirut- Since the announcement cease-fire Between the Lebanese and Israeli sides on November 27, it was not involved Lebanese Hezbollah In any direct military or security action against Israel, despite the continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which varied between assassinations and targeting infrastructure and party facilities, as well as repeated shelling and land penetrations in Lebanese territory.
In a remarkable position, Hezbollah Secretary -General stressed Naeem Qasim However, the party “is not neutral” in the existing confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel, stressing the party’s standing by Iran, its leadership and its people, and the disposal of what the battle interest requires in the face of the aggression.
For its part, Israel met this position with a sharp tone, as the Israeli Defense Minister vowed Israel Katz Hezbollah, accusing its Secretary -General of moving on the orders of the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, saying, “It seems that Qasim has not learned from the fate of his predecessors,” adding that “Israel has lost its patience towards those who threaten it.”
Analysts who spoke to Al -Jazeera Net agree that Iran is the main goal of the current escalation, which makes its response a matter of time, amid warnings that the regional imbalance may open the door to a broader confrontation, the Lebanese front may be one of its most prominent fields.
Attractive scenario
The professor of political science and international law, Dr. Ali Fadlallah, believes, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that what is going on in the region clearly reveals that Iran is the target party, which makes it directly concerned with the response, and indicates that the threats do not stop at Tehran, but rather to other arenas, led by Lebanon, which faces a security dilemma in light of the fragility of the regional balance.
Fadlallah affirms that Israel’s failure to subjugate Iran or change its positions will lead to a widespread escalation, warning that the Lebanese scene may be one of the first explosive fronts if stability in the region is lost, “then the danger is great, and if an imbalance occurred, the Israeli strike of Lebanon becomes an existing possibility.”
Although about 7 months have passed since the end of the recent Israeli war on Lebanon, Fadlallah says that the threats are still continuing, explaining that “there are thousands of violations, and the almost daily Israeli statements are waving the war,” and “the Lebanese people are concerned with deterring any possible aggression, and this will only be achieved through balance, because the US -backed Israeli assumption will exacerbate the risks.”
As for the possible scenarios, Fadlallah pointed out that Iran, after a week of escalation, is still steadfast, but rather strikes against Israel that has not received the same for 77 years, and it is considered that the American intervention came as a result of Israel’s failure to impose new political facts on Tehran Or drag it into unconditional surrender.
Fadlallah concludes by noting that the region entered the stage of “action of power” as the Israeli Prime Minister expressed Benjamin NetanyahuRequired toFor the International Criminal Court On the charge of committing war crimes in Gaza, “there is no surrender or calm, but rather an ongoing escalation, and the battle is a candidate to continue according to the upcoming changes.”
For his part, the researcher and political writer Hadi Qubaisi, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, believes that “Cab“The Israeli declared its goal” to weaken the axis of the resistance, “which reveals aggressive intentions towards all its components.
Qubaisi suggests that this orientation leads to “activating the style of the unit of the squares simultaneously, as the forces interfere Resistance Based on the defense site, which may open the door to a comprehensive regional war against the Israeli occupation.
The war of attrition
Political analyst Tawfiq Shoman believes, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that there are no serious indications of expanding the scope of the war towards the Lebanese front, explaining that there is a conviction that Iran is able to defend itself, which is reflected in the strikes it made for vital facilities inside Israel.
Despite the intensity of the Israeli attacks on Iran, Tehran – according to Shoman – succeeded in dragging Israel into a long -term war, which weakens the possibilities of opening the Lebanese front, unless the occupation authorities decided to expand the circle of confrontation and return to the scene of the war, which prevailed before agreeing to the ceasefire.
Regarding the direct American intervention in the war, Shoman raises two visions:
- The first is that this intervention may lead to the breadth of the confrontation to include the entire region.
- The second is that the American strikes of Iranian nuclear establishments be a prelude to ending the war, by pushing the American president Donald Trump To pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the aim of returning to the diplomatic path.
“The question that imposes itself now: that is, the two directions will advance? I think the coming hours are enough to answer.”
Existence and response
In his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, a journalist who specializes in regional affairs, Khalil Nasrallah, considers that whoever responds to the American strike against Iran is Tehran itself, stressing that “Hezbollah is not answered on its behalf.”
But it does not rule out the entry of Hezbollah and the resistance factions on the line of confrontation if the battle evolves into an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.
He explains that “engaging in the confrontation is linked to the path of conflict between Iran on the one hand, and the United States and Israel on the other hand,” adding that “the Western coalition seeks to destroy Iran and target its symbols, which may be understood by the resistance forces in the region as an aggression not only targeting Iran, but the peoples and countries of the region as a whole.”