Is Iran victorious or defeated? | policy

The 12 -day war, which started with Israeli attacks on Iran on June 13, ended with a ceasefire reached on the morning of June 24.

Israel called its operation against Iran the name “the rising lion”, while Iran called its retaliatory movement against Israel the name “sincere promise-3”.

Israel launched violent and multi -sided attacks on the nuclear and missile infrastructure of Iran, its military headquarters, radars, air defense systems, some economic and civil areas, using the agents of Mossad from inside Iran and its warplanes.

On the first day of the attacks, Israel targeted high -ranking military leaders such as the Commander -in -Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hussein Salami, Chairman of the General Staff Muhammad Baqri, and the Commander of the Jawfiya Forces in the Revolutionary Guards, Amir Ali Haji Zadeh, in addition to nuclear scientists.

As for Iran, which has invested greatly in the missile development program since 1979, its retaliatory response to Israel was using long -range missiles. With its missiles, Iran targeted places of military strategic importance, most notably the Mossad headquarters in Herzlia, the headquarters of the “Aman” military intelligence unit, and the port of Haifa.

The United States of America, which did not participate in the attacks on Iran at the beginning of the war but provided defensive support to Israel, intervened on the tenth day of the war and struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo using B-2 bombers.

On the twelfth day of the war, a ceasefire between the two parties was reached with the intervention of US President Trump and support from Qatar. After the ceasefire, both Iran and Israel announced his “victory” in the war.

Did Israel achieve its goals?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Secretary Katz and other Israeli officials said in many statements during the war about their desire to topple the regime in Iran.

The goal of Israel, in addition to destroying the nuclear and missile infrastructure of Iran, was to eventually bring down the regime and establish a new administration compatible with Israel and America.

While Israel was targeting other military bases and establishments, and nuclear establishments in almost all cities of Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu and other officials, as well as official social media accounts, sent messages to the Iranian people: “The Iranian people and the Jewish people Shaban are friends since ancient times. We are not enemies of the Iranian people, but for the regime in Iran. Our attacks are directed against the regime.”

In his statements, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called on the Iranian people, saying: “We have opened a way to target the regime, and you, in turn, bring him down to rebel.”

He contributed to the efforts of Israel to “bring down the regime” figures such as Reza Pahlavi, the ousted Shah, who lives in America, and the leader of the Mujahideen Organization, Maryam Rajavi, in addition to armed organizations such as “Bigak” and “Back”.

Israel has not achieved its final goal of “overthrowing the regime” in the 12 -day war, but it succeeded in causing certain harm to its other goals of nuclear and missile infrastructure.

Israel launched multiple attacks on Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities throughout the war. In the end, the United States targeted these three facilities.

According to initial reports, the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities appear to have serious damage, while the Fordo nuclear facility, which was built at a depth of approximately 90 meters underground, has a slight damage that it can return to work in a short time.

On the other hand, the statements issued by Israel indicate that this war has delayed the Iranian nuclear program for several years. Thus, although Israel and America had damaged nuclear facilities, they were unable to completely eliminate the Iranian nuclear program.

But the attacks of Israel and America have largely destroyed military bases, headquarters, radar systems and air defense that Iran has built over 45 years, causing billions of dollars in losses.

When we compare the goals that Netanyahu announced and what was achieved at the end of the war, we reach the following result:

It cannot be considered that Israel has achieved an absolute victory; Because it failed to achieve its final goal of toppling the regime. As for assessing the damage to nuclear facilities and the nuclear program, it is possible to talk about partial success in this regard.

Is Iran victorious or defeated?

It can be said that Iran’s primary goal in this war, as the aggressive party, was to ensure that Israel could not achieve its declared goals.

Although this war was a “imposed war”, according to the expression of the Iranian guide, Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran has been a country that has been preparing for war with Israel since 1979. All officials, led by Ayatollah Khamenei and the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, have announced repeatedly that they aim to “erase Israel from the map.”

From this perspective, it can be said that the military and economic capabilities and the intelligence activities of Iran are far from achieving the goals it set regarding Israel.

The Israeli intelligence agency “Mossad”, through years of careful work, has created dangerous spying networks inside Iran, and these networks have enabled Israel to easily hit Iran in the recent war. Some sensitive areas in Iran, and military equipment such as air defense systems, have not been struck by Israel directly, but by Mossad agents inside Iran.

The war showed that the Iranian missiles, especially the ballistic and vocal hyperactivity, are high capabilities and made with modern technologies, and revealed that the Iranian intelligence services are suffering from serious weakness. The main cause of the serious damage to Iran in this war is the easy penetration of the Mossad inside Iran.

The Mossad penetration in Iran to the point of building a three -storey drone production in the heart of Tehran will lead to confirmation of confidence within the Iranian administration, and will cause concern between the Iranian security bureaucracy.

The dispute and the crisis of trust that arose between the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Unit and the Ministry of Intelligence after the assassination of Mohsen Fakhry Zadeh, who is known as the “Iranian nuclear program”, will deepen more after revealing this level of Mossad penetration inside Iran.

Therefore, Iran’s prevention of Israel’s goal of overthrowing the regime is certainly a great success. The notable point here is that the Iranian people, who put all their criticisms and objections to the regime aside, stood by its leadership despite all the provocations and manipulations of Israel and the opposition abroad, and this was the main element in protecting the regime. That is, what protected the Iranian Islamic revolution was not the rockets, but rather the steadfastness of the people. In terms of system protection, Iran can be considered successful.

Likewise, Iran’s success in hitting targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa must be considered more developed, despite all the sanctions, as a success for the Iranian missile program.

However, the damage caused by the Iranian intelligence weakness, and its inability to protect its nuclear facilities and other military facilities reveal Iran’s weakness in the fields of security and defense. Although the Iranian regime has survived, we can say that its intelligence and defensive policy has collapsed.

Therefore, it is not possible to talk about an absolute victory for Iran as well.

What are the weaknesses of Israel and Iran?

The Israeli -Iranian war revealed that Israel is not self -sufficient in terms of ammunition. The fact that Israel needs the ammunition developed by Western countries, especially the United States, to fight a total war.

It cannot be said that Israel has completely built its defensive structure itself. It has been shown that it needs defense support from the United States and other western countries to defend itself. This clearly appeared in other attacks by Iran.

Israel also needs support in the attack. It turned out that it is not self -sufficient to destroy the high -quality facilities of a fully advanced country, and that it desperately needed offensive support.

As for Iran’s point of view, the situation is not different. As we mentioned, the war showed that Iranian intelligence agencies suffer from serious weakness. On the other hand, although the Fordo facility was protected thanks to its 90 -meter depth, Iran suffers from a dangerous deficiency in protecting its military and nuclear facilities above the surface of the earth.

We can conclude that Iran’s stock of ammunition, its intelligence capabilities and other areas does not allow it to continue a comprehensive war.

Iran’s defect is that its strategic allies, Russia and China, with which they signed alliance agreements, do not stand by the same strength that the United States, Britain and France stand alongside Israel. Consequently, in any possible war, Iran will have to fight many countries on its own, or to fight Israel, which is strongly supported by many countries.

Summary

Although Iran and Israel declared victory, it is not possible to talk about an absolute victory for either of them. Despite the announcement of the ceasefire between them, it is currently progressing on fragile ground.

Although Israel has stopped its actual attacks on Iran, it will not abandon its efforts to incite the Iranian people against the regime, and will focus on this field.

Creating a ground for changing the regime in the hands of the people through its incitement, and escalating the lack of confidence between the Iranian state institutions to stimulate chaos within the state, is the second stage of the Israeli “regime change” strategy. Consequently, achieving the ceasefire means announcing the start of the second phase of Israel’s strategy.