Before the illegal attack by Israel on Iran, the scope of the clash between Tehran and Tel Aviv was defined within the “gray zone”, or what is known as the unequal war. But two weeks ago, the equation changed, and we were facing a direct confrontation between these two regional actors.
At the dawn of the thirteenth of June 2025, the Israeli government announced, through an official statement, that it carried out a “proactive blow” called “the rising lion”, through which it targeted vital sites such as nuclear sites, missile units and the aircraft in Natanz, Fordo, Zandab and Partisin.
Simultaneously, the Israeli army and Mossad launched assassinations against senior military leaders and some prominent figures in the Iranian nuclear program.
During the 12 -day war between Tehran and Tel Aviv, at least 610 Iranian victims fell. According to the Israeli army, at least 480 strategic targets were targeted inside Iran during these sudden operations.
On the other hand, the Iranian armed forces announced the start of the “sincere promise 3” operation, as they fired more than 500 missiles on the occupied territories among more than 21 offensive waves. Iranian missile attacks killed 28 Zionists and wounded at least 265 others.
After the Iranian “Al -Fateh” operation against the American leadership of “Sentcom” at the base of many, in response to the “Midname” operation, the United States began with the help of Qatar mediation efforts between Iran and Israel, and Trump announced through a post on the “Truth Social” platform for a truce between the two parties.
The decisive question after declaring this relative truce in the region: Will the war be resumed between Iran and Israel again?
Israel’s goals
Minutes after the widespread attack on military and civilian targets inside Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Katz, and Jarhoun Saar, the main poles in the Israeli government, announced that the goal of the war was to destroy the nuclear program and Iranian ballistic missiles.
Although the Israeli government tried, through the official platforms, to show these goals as the main agenda of the army and intelligence services, the facts on the ground indicate that the Zionist right is seeking to achieve more ambitious goals.
Israel has pumped a huge amount of advertising; In order to incite the Iranian people to rebel and change the existing system in Tehran, which shows its endeavor to change the face of the Middle East. But the Iranian people, by showing a clear national unity in the face of the external enemy, did not respond to this Israeli-American project.
After the war ended, Israel announced that it had destroyed 50% of Iranian missile launch platforms, targeted 35 missile manufacturing centers, and assassinated 11 nuclear scientists.
Despite the allegations of “Great Victory” by Israeli officials, the facts indicate that Israel was satisfied with limited strikes to the Iranian nuclear and missile programs. Opinion polls, such as what was published in the newspaper “Maariv”, showed that 65% of the population of the occupied territories do not see that Israel has made a clear victory.
Iran’s goals
During the 12 -day war, Tehran announced that its most important goals were “an effective response to aggression”, “protecting strategic assets”, and “punishing the aggressor with the aim of restoring deterrence.”
Major General Mousavi, Chairman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, confirmed that the operations implemented so far were a warning to deter the enemy, and that the decisive punitive operation is coming.
In practice, due to Israel targeting Iranian and Iranian radar defense systems, and sabotage carried out by Mossad agents, Tehran focused on the attack and hit strategic centers in the occupied territories, such as: Nevatim Air Force Base, Ouda Air Force Base, Ramon Military Base, Mossad Central headquarters, and Haifa Petroleum.
“Fluid tension” .. Return to the negotiating table
With the announcement of the armistice between Iran and Israel, US President Donald Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Whittvv announced unofficial talks with Tehran to revive nuclear negotiations.
Washington appears to have provided some incentives, as a partial lifting of sanctions, especially the sale of oil to China. KPLER has reported that Iran’s oil exports amounted to 2.2 million barrels per day, and is expected to rise to 2.4 million soon.
Later, “CNN” revealed an American offer of $ 30 billion to create a peaceful nuclear program in exchange for Iran’s abandonment of fertilization. Despite the White House’s interest in concluding a nuclear agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqji denied in an interview with Iranian television that there are any plans to resume negotiations.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency reports show that Iranian nuclear facilities were not fully destroyed, and there are 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, their fate is still unknown. Consequently, the return to negotiations has become almost inevitable, unless Israel resumes its military adventures again.
“Tactical decline” and the opening of the “Pandora Fund” again
During the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Donald Trump spoke explicitly about the “harsh strikes” that Israel was subjected to missile attacks. In parallel, some sources talked about the limited Israeli air defenses stock to counter Iranian long -term attacks, which the Israeli army has repeatedly denied.
In this scenario, after rebuilding its military capabilities and updating its intelligence assessments, Israel may resort to a new round of attacks under the pretext of the continued nuclear and Iranian missile threat.
It seems that the political, military and intelligence elite in Iran is dealing with the possibility of the war in the short term realistically, which is reinforced by previous experiences in Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the failure of Israel to achieve its entire goals during the recent war.
Return to the gray region: There is no war, no ladder
Even before the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, 2024, the conflict between Iran and Israel was taking place within the “gray zone”, where the two parties were avoiding the direct and comprehensive war. But the comprehensive war from 13 to 25 June 2025 prompted some international relations experts to say that a return to the gray zone is no longer possible.
However, another team believes that if the possible negotiations between Iran and the United States fail, and at the same time Israel was not willing to fight a new war, the two parties may return to the use of “unequal war” tools through intelligence operations, diplomatic campaigns, benefit from regional allies, or employ economic tools.
A war on the future of the Middle East
The victor in the war between Iran and Israel will have a decisive role in “reshaping” the regional system in West Asia. Perhaps the understanding of the “Al -Aqsa Flood” process on October 7, 2023 in the map of geostrategic competition between the United States, China and Russia, shows this trend.
Israel, as the strategic ally of America in the eastern Mediterranean, seeks to remove the resistance axis from the region’s equation, in preparation for activating the “India – Middle East – Europe” corridor (IMEC) and containing Chinese and Russian influence in the northern Indian Ocean.
There is an increasing talk about a possible end of the Gaza war, and the expansion of “Abraham” agreements to include Saudi Arabia and Syria that reflects a joint plan between Trump and Netanyahu to redraw the map of the Middle East.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.