In light of the hostility between Israel And Iran Expectations are increasing in the outbreak of a new round of escalation, amid a fierce arms race and intense military preparations from both sides.
In a report for the Russian newspaper “Fazigliad”, Alexander Timukhin is reviewing the reasons for the occurrence of a new round of military escalation between Iran and Israel inevitably, advising this and revealing how the army’s army is ready for this scenario.
Despite the announcement of both Iran And Israel Achieving victory in the recent war that erupted last June, the writer explains that the reality shows that none of the parties has not achieved a decisive victory, and military and political indicators indicate that the confrontation has not been decided yet, but was only postponed.
He stated that Israel entered this war while it is in a clear force, as it launched a military operation that seemed coordinated and effective, and helped by the element of surprise, technical air superiority, intelligence networks and sabotage within Iranian territory, in addition to active American support and logistical assistance from countries that opened their air field for Israeli aircraft.
The report indicated that this Israeli strike in terms of operational performance was largely successful, as the Israeli Air Force enabled the destruction of Iranian air defenses.
Israeli failure
However, the writer added that, despite this initial superiority, Israel failed to achieve its strategic goals, so he filmed Satellite It reveals that Iran, as opposed to the Israeli novel – was able to transfer part of its enriched uranium from the Fordo facility before the strike.
There are no indications that uranium is still underground store. There was also no official data on the size of the damage, in light of an accounting Iranian secrecy.
The decisive indicator of failure to destroy Nuclear reactors It is the absence of any radioactive leakage with atmosphere, which is what happens in the event of the destruction of uranium stores, and this indicates that sensitive facilities were not essentially touched and that the American strike failed to achieve its great goal
The decisive indicator is the absence of any radioactive leakage in the atmosphere, which is what happens in the event of the destruction of uranium stores. This indicates that sensitive facilities were not essentially touched and that the strike failed to achieve its great goal.
The writer adds that the repercussions of the Israeli attack were not only limited to the military side, but also extended to the nuclear escalation. Iran has announced that it had stopped its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirming that it will continue operations Uranium enrichment Without restrictions.
According to US intelligence reports, the main components of the Iranian nuclear program were not destroyed during the attack. On the internal level, the Iranian political system was able to withstand.
Thus, Israel did not succeed in achieving any of the goals it declared before launching the war. On the contrary, the operation led to a completely opposite conclusion: Iran’s cut off any future negotiating path with the West.
In this context, it looks US As if to limit the escalation without full engagement. The blow carried out by the American army carried a more operational nature than an operational.
It seems that its main goal was not to achieve military gains, but rather to send an internal message to the Israeli Libyan in Washington that the American administration “did not stand idly” and at the same time a pressure on Tehran to push it towards it cease-fire.
The writer believes that although Israel was not defeated militarily in this war – where it came out with new field experience and incurred limited losses – it also did not win. In addition to not achieving their declared targets, the Israelis realized the limits of their military ability.
The war showed that Israel, if it continued to exchange strikes with Iran, would have entered into a stressful war of attrition, which could not bear it for more than 3 months, especially in light of the increasing difficulties in compensating munitions for air defense systems and micro -weapons used by the Air Force, and that Israeli intelligence networks inside Iran are threatened with dismantling after their exposure.
Iranian defeat
On the other hand, the results of the war – according to the writer – can be considered a clear defeat for Iran, as it came out of the confrontation in a worse position than it was before its outbreak. Israeli strikes revealed the reality of Iranian military capabilities and showed its limitations in front of the world after it was depicted as a difficult regional power to confront.
This strike came within a series of strategic setbacks Tehran. It did not confront the first blow when Israel managed to weaken.Hezbollah“The Lebanese, and did not interfere decisively when a regime collapsed Bashar al -Assad In Syria, the last paper was in the hands of Iran, its direct military ability, but it has now fallen, according to the writer.
The war did not end the existing tension, but postponed the next explosion, and with the main roots of the crisis remaining without a solution, the outbreak of a new round of conflict between the two parties is only a matter of time.
Despite what the supreme guide announces Ali Khamenei From “Nasr” on Israel and the United States, the Iranian street is well aware of reality, as years of propaganda have evaporated about Iranian power in a few days.
Although Israel has not fully achieved its goals, Iran has been subjected to a great strategy at the military and political levels. Therefore, this war did not end the existing tension, but rather postponed the next explosion. As the basic roots of the crisis remain without a solution, the outbreak of a new round of conflict between the two parties is only a matter of time.
What will Iran and Israel do after that?
Timukhin believes that the idea that “Iran may take the initiative to attack Israel” either a fantasy, or just part of the Israeli military propaganda because Tehran is not in a location that qualifies it for that. Its air force is almost non -existent and its missiles – despite the arrival of some of them to the Israeli airspace – have been intercepted most.
Moreover, the writer believes that Tehran has lost its traditional tools in fighting inappropriate wars against Israel, especially “Hezbollah”. After the Israeli strikes, it no longer has what it relies on to launch paramilitary or tactical operations through its agents.
However, Timukhin confirms that what Iran will do certainly is to prepare for the next round of confrontation with Israel. In the first stage, these preparations will begin to develop their missile arsenal and arm their missile forces, with the aim of improving their ability to penetrate the Israeli air defense system.
As for the second step, according to the writer, it will be the continuation of the uranium enrichment program. According to the previous nuclear agreement, Iran was allowed to fertilize 300 kilograms of uranium by no more than 3.7%. But after the United States withdrew from the agreement, Iran canceled all the restrictions imposed on it.
It was more likely that Iran will remain in the next stage only one step from having nuclear weapons, without actually producing production Nuclear bomb Or assembly, and this will provide her with a diplomatic pressure paper.
Taymukhin believes that Israel’s mission is more complicated in the next stage. If it seeks to carry out a second blow against Iran, then it must first enhance its defensive ability against the potential Iranian missile attacks, and be able to repel it with a higher efficiency than the previous round, which requires the creation of sufficient stocks of interceptor missiles sufficient for several weeks or even more than 100 days of fighting, which are expensive ammunition and need To a long time in production.
Besides, Israel needs to secure a similar stock of high -resolution airfoot to its air forces, allowing long -term air operations. It must also rebuild its intelligence network within Iranian territory, after she was incurred by great losses, as well as working to disrupt the counter -measures that the Iranians began to take.
How does the new war go between Israel and Iran?
The writer suggests that Iran can achieve a qualitative leap with the capabilities of its missile forces, with this to be associated later with an increase in quantity, which enhances its ability to fight a long -term war.
On the other hand, Israel will continue to store high -precision munitions and interceptor missiles for several months, and with every increase in this stock the possibility of carrying out a new attack against Iran will rise.
According to Timukhin, the possibility of a large -scale attack will start to escalate starting next September, and Israel is likely to carry out a new attack next year, but if it gets American guarantees with military support, it has been presented late this year. And if Israel uses nuclear weapons in the second round, it is certain that Iran will respond by developing its own nuclear weapon, as it will not remain what it loses.
The writer expects that the performance of Iranian missiles will be more effective in the next round, due to its dependence on the experience of the first battle, at the same time, at the same time, the success of the Israeli air defenses in restoring their previous efficiency in the short term.
At the end of the report, the writer expects to repeat Washington The pattern of its previous intervention, through indirect support from the beginning, and may turn into a partner in the fighting if Israel begins to lose the war of attrition. As for Iran, and if it is exposed to repeated American attacks, it will respond directly to the American bases in the region, without prior warnings, as happened in the last round.