Chechnya today faces an unprecedented test in its modern history, as the health status of President Ramadan Kadyrov deteriorates, while attention is directed towards the future of the Caucasian Republic, which has turned during the past two decades into a unique political model within the Russian Federation, based on personal loyalty and the strength of the security grip.
But the question that imposes itself: What awaits Chechnya if her man suddenly misses the scene?
Ramadan Kadyrov’s rise to power in Chechnya did not coincidentally, but rather an extension of a pivotal stage of political and personal controversy in his family’s history, began with his father Ahmed Qadirov. The father was one of the most prominent leaders of the Chechen resistance during the nineties, then changed his position in light of the complications of the scene to move to cooperate with Moscow under the slogan “Stability in exchange for loyalty.”
This sharp shift sparked widespread controversy between Chechen and his political opponents, as many considered it a betrayal of independence aspirations, while others saw that it was an attempt to save what could be saved from destruction and chaos.
This controversy, and the increasing internal polarization, led to the assassination of Ahmed Qadirov in an explosion that targeted him inside the Dinamo Stadium in Grozny in 2004 during the celebration of victory day, in an incident that shook the Chechen and Russian circles together, and opened the door to his son Ramadan’s escalation to the fore.
During this period, Ramadan was not far from the center of events; He was the commander of his father’s militia, and he participated strongly in field transformations, but he quickly replaced him with his family’s convergence from Moscow, to move later to the direct rule in 2007 with the support of President Vladimir Putin, based on the personal loyalty equation as a guarantee of stability in the turbulent Caucasus region.
During his years of rule, Kadyrov, the son, laid a highly central security system, depending on security services and special forces that are very loyal to the family, and managed a network of complex relationships at home and with Chechen diaspora abroad, and built the image of the modern state through reconstruction projects and aspects of relative well -being compared to the years of war.
Today, with the deteriorating health of Kadyrov, the debate about the Caliphate’s scenarios has returned strongly to the fore. His son Adam, who has not yet reached the legal presidency according to the Russian constitution (thirty years), was recently escalated to prominent sovereign and security sites, in light of the direct supervision of the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, other strong names such as Adam Dulakhanov, Abit Alaa Dinov, commander of the “Akhta” forces (Ahmed), and the Prime Minister Magomed Dodov, all of them are affiliated with the narrow circle that Moscow prefers to continue as a stability guarantor.
What enhances the fears of the void is that the Chechen ruling elite remained for two decades in the orbit of the Kadyrov family, without developing democratic rulers or real circulation of power.
Higher positions were distributed between relatives and loyalists, at a time when society suffered intense security supervision, social and religious restrictions, and international reports were repeated on human rights violations, arbitrary arrests and the pursuit of opponents even outside the country.
Nevertheless, the relative improvement in the living situation and the structure of reconstruction cannot be ignored by taking advantage of huge financial flows from Moscow representing more than 80% of the Chechen budget, which made large sectors prefer the continuity of the current stability to return to the atmosphere of war and armed conflict.
Among the striking developments in recent years is the participation of Chechnya forces, led by Kadyrov and “Akhta” forces, alongside the Russian army in the Ukrainian war.
This role gave Kadyrov a advanced position in the loyalty system for the Kremlin, but at the same time he gave birth to some Chechen circles, especially with the increasing number of deaths among local soldiers, and the intensification of the controversy over the feasibility of participating in conflicts that do not affect Chechnya directly.
Kadyrov succeeded in converting religion into an essential element in the legitimacy of government; He worked to revive the Islamic identity of Chechnya, built the Grand Grand Mosque, and received religious symbols such as Sheikh Al -Azhar, in a clear message to highlight the religious dimension of its regime against Moscow and the Islamic world.
This trend contributed to the merging of Chechnya into the broader Russian religious system, and gave the regime a symbolic dimension that invests in strengthening the Kremlin’s relationship with the Muslim community, which is increasing in Russia year after year.
The human rights file in Chechnya stands at the heart of the international controversy, with the accusations of severe violations, enforced disappearances and arrests of the opponents, in addition to reports of the prosecution of the opponents of the regime in the diaspora, especially in Turkey and Europe.
This has led to increasing Western pressure on Moscow, with a threat to impose additional penalties if the situation deteriorated after Kadyrov’s absence.
Chechen diaspora, especially in Türkiye and Europe, holds a growing political and media role, and is a window to escalate the opposition discourse or even to reproduce armed resistance projects if it shakes internal stability.
On the other hand, Europe continues with concern the possibility of frequent waves of immigration if the security situation in Chechnya explodes, especially with the fragility of the government system and the absence of power circulation institutions.
Thus, Chechen society remains a pending between the hope of change and the fears of chaos, as Chechnya today summarizes the dilemma of stability in the Caucasus region: a small state, a wounded society, a powerful authority around one family, and a mutual loyalty between a local leader and a superpower.
Therefore, the fate of Chechnya after Kadyrov remains a comment between the hope of change and the dangers of chaos, amid a local, regional and international caution for what will result in the coming days.
The nature of the complex political heritage left by Ahmed Kadirov, the continuation of the controversy over the legitimacy of his son Ramadan’s options, and the path of power after him, will remain a decisive element in drawing the future of Chechnya for the coming years.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.