Since it returned to power in August 2021, the caretaker government in Afghanistan has sought to rebuild its external relations and gain international recognition, in a complex international environment and great political and economic pressures.
The past four years have witnessed a remarkable shift in the Russian position towards Kabul, which led to an official recognition of the Taliban government, and its acceptance of a new ambassador to the Afghan government in Moscow.
The Russian move was considered historic, according to the description of the Russian ambassador in the Kabul Dmitry Gernov, in the direction of strengthening relations between Afghanistan and Russia, while the Afghan Foreign Minister, Mawlawi Amir Khan, welcomed the decision of the Russian government, and considered it a good start to a new stage in relations between the two countries.
Afghan, the Russian decision is an important development in the history of relations between the two countries, and represents a model that will be built with other neighboring countries that may follow in the near future the Russian government’s approach to taking similar steps.
It will often contribute to expanding bilateral cooperation with every country next to Afghanistan and in various fields.
Internal and external wetness with Russian recognition
Russia’s recognition of the interim government in Afghanistan was widely welcomed by Afghan government officials, as well as outside Afghanistan by some countries.
In this context, a spokesman for the Afghan government called on the Mujahid of the world to fulfill its responsibilities towards developing its relations with Afghanistan, cooperation with the Afghan people in all fields, and recognizing the existing government in Afghanistan to open the doors of joint cooperation, and wrote on the X platform: “I hope that the allies of Moscow, such as China, Iran, Pakistan and some Central Asian countries will follow this path.”
For his part, the prominent leader of the Taliban movement, Anas Haqqani, stressed that the policy of pressure and isolation is useless, stressing that dialogue and dealing are the only way to resolve issues and achieve rapprochement between countries. After the Russian recognition of the Afghan government, he said: “The official dealing with the Islamic emirate is a recognition of an undeniable fact.”
China was one of the first countries that welcomed the Russian step, as a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, welcomed the recent development in the relationship between the Russian government and the interim government in Afghanistan, and said in a statement to her: “China always believes that Afghanistan should not be isolated from the international community, we support the promotion of interaction and communication between the international community and the interim government in Kabul.”
She pointed out that China and Afghanistan have maintained their natural diplomatic relations since the Taliban returned to power, and that China will continue, according to its friendly policy towards all the Afghan people, and support the continued exchange and cooperation between the two sides in various fields.
Afghan political analysts believe that the Chinese welcoming Russia’s official recognition of the Afghan government does not necessarily mean that China will follow Russia directly in the official recognition of the Afghan business government, but it reflects a calculated political position that carries several strategic connotations, including:
1 – Coordination, not dependency: China and Russia are two strategic partners, and their positions are often coordinated on international issues, especially in the face of Western influence.
The Chinese welcome is not understood from it that it follows Russia, but rather shows general support for the Russian step without drifting to official recognition. On the other hand, Beijing is often preferred to follow a pragmatic and cautious approach, taking calculated steps without adhering to situations that may embarrass him internationally.
2- An implicit message to the West: The Chinese welcome is an indirect political message to the West, especially the United States of America, that the Russian-Chinese alliance is ready to fill the void left by the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Beijing seeks to show that it supports stability in Afghanistan, and that it is a party that can be trusted in the region.
3 – China’s behavior with Afghanistan refers to practical, not official,; Beijing is sending its ambassador to Kabul and its acceptance of its Afghan government’s ambassador, indicating an actual recognition of the Afghan government, or so it sees on the ground, and the multiple and huge Chinese investments in Afghanistan indicate this recognition for at least the cable, especially in the economic dimension and other areas, even if there is no official recognition.
So the Russian recognition is in line with the Chinese practical position, but rather opens the door for more legitimacy to the Afghan government internationally, and it is believed that the official Chinese recognition will be a final step by Beijing in the future.
Immediately after Russia recognized the Kabul government, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming that Moscow is one of the main regional parties, and has legitimate security interests, and maintains friendly relations with all countries of the region.
It also stressed that Pakistan has friendly relations with Russia. A spokesman for the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, Shafat Khan, considered that the recognition of a bilateral matter between two independent states with sovereignty, and that Islamabad took into account the Russian decision.
The Russian recognition may encourage Islamabad to take its step in the coming days, as it does not question the legitimacy of the Afghan government, but rather communicates with it as a neighbor, and deals with it as a government a fait accompli despite a number of files of disagreement between the two countries.
However, the decision of the Pakistani recognition will remain dependent on security and interesting accounts, not only political, and it may happen later if Islamabad feels that the Afghan government provides sufficient guarantees to protect its borders and internal security, especially with regard to the Pakistani Taliban movement.
A Russian decision sends hope for a promising economy
The Russian recognition of the Afghan government has extensive economic consequences for Afghanistan, as strengthening the political legitimacy of Kabul opens the door to other similar confessions, which may raise the investment affairs, by attracting regional and international businessmen, and economic activists and private sector men in Afghanistan believe that the decision is a positive step towards improving economic conditions in the country.
Economists believe that the increase in countries’ recognition of the government’s legitimacy in Kabul will pave the way to alleviate financial and commercial restrictions on Afghanistan, and will increase interaction with the international community. Afghanistan has an annual trade volume with Russia more than $ 300 million.
With the new decision made by Moscow, hope is increasing in the high volume of trade exchange between the two countries, and Russia wants its recent decision to raise trade and economic cooperation and the increase in investment, in an attempt to restrict Chinese investment influence in Afghanistan, especially after the last vacuum that occurred as a result of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.
“The recognition of a major country in the region of Russia to the Afghan government will have very serious impacts, we believe that this decision will be in the interest of the government and the Afghan people at the two levels; political and economic.”
Alkuzi notes that regional and international countries do not recognize Afghan banks as a result of economic sanctions imposed on Afghanistan by the West as soon as the Taliban was able to control the government about four years ago.
Although Russia has not been invested in Afghanistan, the technical capabilities it possesses in the fields of engineering and oil extraction is currently enhancing hopes in establishing practical cooperation between Kabul and Moscow.
Russian recognition between reality and political competition
In the past four years, the Afghan government has made strong and multi -sided diplomatic efforts to gain international recognition, and its most prominent achievement in this regard was Russian recognition, which is a strategic step towards breaking international isolation.
Russia’s recognition of the Afghan government represents a remarkable political development, not only at the level of bilateral relations, but at the level of regional and international equations that are formed around Afghanistan post -American withdrawal, and the Taliban controlled the country.
This recognition raises deep questions, is it a recognition of a new political reality in Afghanistan, or is it part of a political competition for influence in Central Asia and its south with the West?
Acknowledgment acceptance of an existing reality
Russia, through this decision, acknowledged the government of a fait accompli – according to the West’s view – has controlled the country since August 2021, and the Taliban government has been able to impose security in a large degree after two decades of occupation and chaos, and with its recognition, Moscow seems to say to the international community, there is no use in ignoring the political truth in Kabul.
It is irrelevant to the Russian pragmatism, which sees in the Afghan government a party that can be understood, especially in security issues, drugging drugs and combating the threats of cross -border extremists, and the stability of the borders of the Central Asian border adjacent to Afghanistan.
In this context, Russia’s Special Representative in Afghanistan, Zamir Kaponov, said in a television interview that Kabul is doing everything in its power to combat terrorism and drug smuggling.
He said: “The decision came out of the need for a comprehensive political interaction and legal cooperation between Moscow and Kabul, and economic cooperation with Afghanistan had started in advance, and in order to complete the legal aspect, Moscow had to recognize the Afghan interim government.”
A message to the West
The Russian recognition is also an implicit challenge to the West, especially the United States and the coalition with it in the occupation of Afghanistan for twenty years, in which they left tremendous destruction.
With this step, Moscow sends a message that it is ready to fill the void and build political relations that others failed to succeed, but Moscow’s move can be considered part of the Russian-Western competition for the areas of influence, as Moscow seeks to enhance its political and economic position in Central Asia and its south through the Kabul Gate, especially after the war on Ocrania and tension its relations with the West.
As for neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Iran, they believe that they rearrange their papers, and will try to restore politically, for fear that Moscow may be unique and perhaps later Beijing in the Afghan scene, and that Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are expected to follow Russian policy towards the Afghan government in the future future, so its motives to recognize the government of violating Afghan business The same Russian motives.
The same applies to Tajikistan, which was considered one of the host countries that violate the government of Afghanistan, and it was a haven available to the opposition front, and the diplomatic staff of the Afghanistan embassy in the Tajik capital was largely working for the opposition.
However, according to a reliable source in the Afghan Foreign Ministry, Doshnbeh began direct communication with Kabul, and the source, who asked not to be identified, adds: Increased mutual visits began between the delegations of the two countries, and a bilateral cooperation in the various fields, and the Tajik side began approaching to delegate the affairs of the Afghanistan embassy to the Afghan government, and the Embassy of Tajikistan resumed its work in the same cable, according to the same Source.
Conclusion
Between the logic of political realism and the contexts of geopolitical competition, Russian recognition comes as a step that is believed to have after it, as recognition enhances the presence of the Afghan government regionally, and opens the door to new thinking in dealing with new Afghanistan, away from the post -2001 standards.
But success in investing this step depends on the ability of the Afghan government to gain the confidence of its neighbors, ensure its internal and external security, and manage its external relations intelligently and cautiously, so that the recognition does not turn into a new arena for adult conflicts.
There is no doubt that Russian recognition is a heavy political step, which strengthens the position of the Afghan government on the international scene, but it will not be sufficient alone for a comprehensive normalization.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.