Expectations increase in early elections in Israel In light of the threat of some parties Harida By resigning from the Israeli government against the backdrop of the recruitment file, and the threats of the Minister of Finance, SmotrichThe Minister of National Security, Etamar bin GhafirBy opposing any partial deal that leads to the endowment of the extermination war in Gaza.
This comes in parallel with the start of the Prime Minister’s interrogation Benjamin Netanyahu The current week by the public prosecution in court.
Analysts are not likely to be a solution Knesset The call for early elections is a major impact on the Gaza file, in light of Netanyahu’s insistence on partial deals, withdrawing the hostage paper from the hand of the resistance, and refusing to reach the end of the war, which has become a tool not only to maintain the stability of his extremist government, but the most important tools of his propaganda in his upcoming election campaign, according to observers.
Divide between the Haridim regarding the withdrawal
The Haridi Warning of Netanyahu will end on Tuesday at the end of the Shafiwat Eid (weeks), and they want to see a draft law written to exempt them from recruitment, which can be negotiated between their rabbis and senior officials in the government coalition.
According to Ma’arif newspaper, it is without a written text of the recruitment law, he explained Haridim That the Earth will vibrate from under the coalition.
But the threats issued by a party Judaat Hattorh The militant is still confined to the Israel Agudat faction, led by the Minister of Housing, Isaac Goldenobv, while the second pavilion of the party, Dagl Hatura, led by Knesset member Moshe Gavni, is still accepting an additional opportunity for negotiations until after the week of the weeks that will end on Tuesday.
In addition, there is the position of the Shas Party, which has 11 seats, led by Ihi Deri, the close person of Netanyahu, who does not show serious pressure on Netanyahu to quickly approve the exemption law from recruitment.
And the specialist in the Israeli affairs, Firas Yaghi, suggests that the members of the Jews will take with the government, because they see that their presence in it without any direct benefit puts them in the face of their fans, and their presence in the opposition may give them better privileges.
Regarding the relationship of the possibility of the withdrawal of Haridim from the government coalition with the Gaza war, Yaghi believes that the continuation of the war will increase the claims to recruit them, so they support any deal, in addition to that their relationship with Washington is good, allowing their use in order to pressure Netanyahu and threaten to drop his government.
The effect of the potential withdrawal of the Haridim
However, it must be noted that even if the Jews Party will withdraw its eight members of the coalition, the government will remain supported by 61 seats, meaning that it still has a simple majority, but the members of this party seek to paralyze the coalition from passing its laws by boycotting sessions passing the laws that Netanyahu put on the agenda.
According to Ma’arif, the Jews of Hatoura succeeded in paralyzing the coalition by boycotting the voting at the Knesset General Authority only on Wednesday, which are the days when the initial laws are offered to vote in the current summer session in Knesset Which will end on July 24.
It is expected that the representatives of the Israeli Agouda from the government will resign at a later time, but if it is decided to resign, they are expected to demand the tightening of the procedures for the coalition’s failure to boycott the vote on Mondays, in which government laws are submitted to vote, and this is a step that in itself to resolve the coalition and the government.
The former Knesset member, the lecturer in Israeli studies, Jamal Zahalka, believes that the biblical religious parties (Haredim) will not drop the government unless they are sure that they will win from that, and this is not now existing, as the government that the elections will come will often be worse for these parties, and it will lose some of its financial gains, and you will not get what it wants regarding the enactment of the law of exemption from military service.
Netanyahu maneuver
Analysts do not expect Netanyahu to respond to the pressure of Al -Haraidim regarding the approval of the exemption law from the recruitment of Haridim, although it is one of the most prominent conditions signed in the coalition agreements between Netanyahu and the Jews of Hatura and Sas.
Political analyst at Channel 12, Burn Layeel, believes that Netanyahu is in a race against time, as he does not really believe the existence of a law exempt from military service that can be approved in this coalition. Naftali Bennett (His expected rival according to many opinion polls).
She added that Netanyahu aims to gain time until the end of the summer session, and delay the withdrawal until the beginning of the next session.
Also, Netanyahu has another goal, even if he is convicted of going to the elections, he prefers to go to the polls due to political or security issues, and not because he failed to expand the army ranks because of the recruitment law while everyone knows that his future coalition will also include the Haredim.
The political analyst of Maariv newspaper, I am Brasky, with Layeel that Netanyahu is not sure in the depths of himself, what he really prefers, the law or elections, even if he succeeds in satisfying everyone, the recruitment law accepted by the Haridim, if it was approved, will not be an achievement, but political harm to the Likud, not to mention that such a law is scheduled to be referred to the Supreme Court only.
Only last week, Netanyahu has repeatedly tried to pressure the head of the Knesset Foreign and Security Committee, on the Likud, Edlstein, who opposes the Haridim exempting law from recruitment, to offer the Haredim an early and seductive budget.
In a recent attempt to resolve the recruitment crisis, it will meet, on Tuesday evening, immediately after the holiday, Haridim, Ederstein and a minister in the government, and it is expected that the Netanyahu team will request another 10 days to complete the formulations that they are working on recently, but this time, it is not certain that the Haridim will agree to this request.
Smotrich threats and Ben Ghafir
In exchange for the threat of Haridim, serious threats of another kind, issued by Smutrich and Bin Ghafir, emerged after the proposal of the American Special Envoy for the Middle East, Stephen Whitchov, the new days before Hamas, who responded to him on Saturday evening, according to the description of the political analyst of channel 13 Moria Asarov, as “yes but”.
Smotcic gave Netanyahu the green light to negotiate on a striped basis only two weeks ago, according to Channel 12, and even at that time, there was a talk about the ceasefire for decades without explicit guarantees to end the war.
But after the serious talk about the new Wittakouf proposal, amended by the release of 10 neighborhood prisoners and 18 bodies compared to 60 days of calm, which include withdrawal of the Israeli army and a flow of aid supervised by the United Nations, Smotrich tightened his positions and announced that he would not allow a partial deal to pass, calling for continuing pressure on Gaza to completely subject it.
“I do not agree with a proposal and Witkouf, and Netanyahu made a mistake when he agreed to work according to the proposal,” said Bin Ghafir, and Zahalka excludes that Smotrich and Bin Ghafir cause the overthrow of the Netanyahu government, “they will face severe criticism if they drop a right -wing government, and in general they cannot be aware of a more extremist and Yemeni government than the current government.”
The specialist in the Israeli affairs, Alif Sabbagh, agrees with him that Bin Ghafir and Smotrich- who falls in most of the opinion polls that were held during the war, and the accused by his electoral base that he does not work to equal the burden of compulsory service in the army- cannot topple the current government, and even if they leave the government because of a deal in Gaza, they will remain supportive of it.
Early elections
In the context of talking about the early election scenario, which needs to overthrow the current government headed by Netanyahu through a decision to withdraw confidence from it by a majority in the Knesset, the political analyst in Maariv newspaper, I am Brasky, expected that the elections will be held in early 2026 and not at the end of it after the end of the current Knesset session in October 2026.
She added that it may be better for Netanyahu to go to the elections under the slogan “We did not give up the need to recruit the Haredim”, which will be better than going to the polls soon, without any impressive achievement that can be sold to the voters.
Therefore, everything that Netanyahu needs now is more time, and it is not unlikely at this stage to meet his interests with the majority plans within the Haredi leadership, which talks about an agreed electoral date.
Analyst Sabbagh ruled out a solution to the government of Netanyahu soon, and said that the elections will not take place before their date, the Haraidim tightens the rope to obtain their goals, as well as Smutrich and Bin Ghafir, but no one guarantees his return to the government after early elections, so there is no interest for them, Nentahu or members Likud In early elections.
While Zahalka believes that the Israeli elections will often take place in June 2026, before its date in October 2026, such as recent decades, and indicates that the date of the elections is related to political and partisanships, the government will fall if the budget is not approved until the end of March 2026, stressing that “Netanyahu will not announce voluntary early elections except If he is confident of winning it, and he is far from it at this stage. “
On the other hand, Yaghi believes that Netanyahu is absolutely not searching for any early elections under opinion polls. Netanyahu’s options are zero, as he is being tried and will be convicted, and if his government falls, the issue of security leaks will appear from his office strongly.
In addition, the official government investigation committee was what happened on October 7, 2023, and he will have either prison, isolation, guilt, or continuing his wars and entering a war with Iran, which in light of which will postpone the elections.
Gaza bleeding continues
Observers believe that whether early elections were held or the elections took place on time, the reality of Gaza, most likely, will not change for the better, in light of what opinion polls refer to the progress of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is a leader of the extreme right, in front of Netanyahu and his coalition.
The specialist in the Israeli affairs, Elif Sabbagh, emphasized that any elections are held, whether early or on time, will not affect the Netanyahu program, because it seeks to remain an open wound that benefits from it to the maximum extent as long as the Arab situation continues its inability and even its cooperation with Netanyahu, and as long as American support remains the same.
He added that even if Netanyahu did not announce his victory as he dreams, and even if he fails to displace, Israel and America, regardless of who will rule Israel, will prevent the process of rebuilding the Gaza Strip, and no Arab ruler will dare to provide assistance for reconstruction until after the Israeli -American conditions are fulfilled.
Zahalka believes that Netanyahu will extend the war on Gaza until the elections, and during the electoral battle he will announce the “absolute victory” and the keeping of the Israeli forces in Gaza to continue its occupation, and that Bennett will not get in the real elections the numbers he gets in the polls, and the conflict of the opposition leadership will remain between Lieberman, Gantz and Lubid and Bennett.
He added, “Bennett is no less right than Netanyahu, and that if he won, he will not find what he does in Gaza more than the current government did from the war of genocide and comprehensive destruction. The difference will be in the coalition, so instead of the extremist right parties will be with Bennett the center parties.”
He pointed out that the strategic Israeli goal is to displacement, and if the displacement is not possible because of the Egyptian refusal, Israel is preparing for the displacement pending the favorable opportunity to implement, by making Gaza inappropriate for human life, and as long as Israel does not find someone to stop it, it continues to exterminate an additional year and perhaps more, while the elections are in itself the killing and destruction will not stop.