Cairo – After nearly half a century of estrangement, the Egyptian -Iranian relations return to the interface of the discussion amid an escalating indicators on the existence of a common will to restore bilateral and regional communication.
This is strengthened Abbas Araqji For Cairo yesterday, Monday, during which he conducted with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdel -Ati and the Egyptian President Abdel -Fattah Al -Sisi Consultations dealt with bilateral relations and developments in Gaza Syria and Lebanon, as well as navigation security in the Red Sea and developments in American -Iranian negotiations.
In a press conference in Cairo, Abdel -Ati stressed that the relations between the two countries “are recently developing recently,” while Arakji said that the course of its development “has become open and more clear than ever,” noting that “there are some obstacles that he said” will be still in the next few weeks. “
Aramji’s speech opens the door to questions that Al -Jazeera Net seeks to answer, including messages of his visit to Cairo, and whether it is Egypt AndIran On the threshold of real normalization, or is it just a rapprochement imposed by necessity, and what is the nature of this rapprochement and its repercussions on bilateral and regional issues?
What are the messages of Araqji’s visit to Cairo?
The expert in international relations and national security, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahid, says that an Araqji’s visit carries multiple messages to the West, the United States, and the Gulf states, most notably:
- Egypt emphasizes its ability to play the role of an effective mediator in Iranian nuclear file Between Tehran and Washington, and seeking to reach common spaces of understanding between the two parties.
- Egypt seeks to maintain the balance of power in the region, fearing that Iran’s weakening will lead to the escalation of Israeli or Turkish influence, especially in Syria.
- Messages reassuring to Saudi Arabia that rapprochement with Tehran does not affect the security of the Gulf, but rather focuses on strategic issues such as the Red Sea andSuez Canal.
- Egypt was keen to avoid provoking the West by maintaining balanced relations without comprehensive normalization.
- Egypt sends indirect messages to Israel confirming the rejection of escalation with Iran, and its endeavor to reduce regional tension, including in Gaza, where Cairo plays the role of an effective mediator.
The Egyptian diplomat, Rakha Ahmed Hassan, former Assistant Foreign Minister, member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a member of the Egyptian Society of the United Nations, agrees with the previous offering, and believes that an Araqji’s visit carries several messages and common goals, including:
- Emphasizing the development of relations between Cairo and Tehran, as stated in the statements of the foreign ministers of the two countries, and their reaching advanced stages of understanding and consultation.
- Continuous coordination between the two countries with regard to regional crises in light of Egypt and Iran considered effective regional powers.
- Emphasizing that Tehran does not intend to manufacture a nuclear weapon, especially in light of the statement of the Supreme Leader Ali Khayni That “the nuclear is a demonic weapon.”
- The presence of an Egyptian -Iranian consensus on the peaceful use of nuclear energy, while demanding the two parties to end the double standards in dealing with the nuclear file in the region, especially in light of Israel possessing nuclear weapons and threatening to use it in the Gaza Strip.
I am happy with my presence in Cairo again. I had very important meetings with His Excellency President Abdel Fattah El -Sisi and His Excellency Foreign Minister Badr Abdel -Ati. After many years, diplomacy between Iran and Egypt entered a new stage. The level of interaction and political cooperation, and most importantly, the level of trust and reassurance in … pic.twitter.com/aN3VdWs53S
What changed this time on Araqji’s visit? What are the obstacles of rapprochement?
Maj.
On the nature of obstacles and obstacles that hinder this rapprochement, it indicates:
- Tehran support forHouthi groupWhose operations affected the trade movement in Red Sea And the Suez Canal, and caused Egyptian losses.
- Cairo rejected any Iranian expansionist role in the region.
- Clear Egyptian reservations about Iran’s nuclear intentions in light of the emphasis on the need to evacuate the Middle East from weapons of mass destruction, and that Tehran’s possession of a nuclear bomb will lead to a regional arms race, especially with Israel and the Gulf states.
- The Iranian -Saudi competition requires from Cairo to send messages of reassurance to Riyadh, that any rapprochement with Iran comes within the framework of securing Egyptian interests, foremost of which is securing international navigation and the Suez Canal.
Whereas, the diplomat, Rakha Hassan, notes that the nature of the obstacles that Araqji talked about is still unclear, and asks if the Houthi operations are intended that negatively affect the maritime navigation movement, or are it another kind.
He pointed out that Iran had already tried to absolve itself of supporting the Houthis directly, as its foreign minister stated that the Houthis are making their decisions independently, and that Tehran is not a direct party to support their operations.
But the reality indicates, according to Rakha, that there is a clear Iranian influence, especially in light of the Houthis use advanced weapons that they are likely to obtain from their friendly countries, stressing that securing navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal was – certainly – one of the basic topics raised during an Araqji visit to Cairo.
What are the chances of success of overcoming obstacles and returning bilateral relations?
Maj.
However, it confirms that this rapprochement will not take place in the short or even medium term due to the sensitivity of the situation and the intertwining of interests and alliances in the region. It is believed that one of the factors that may open the way to real normalization is the success of nuclear negotiations and Iran’s return to the bosom of the international community, as well as abandoning its interventional policies in the region, which may encourage Cairo to take advanced steps.
The Iranian -Saudi rapprochement also constitutes an encouraging element of Egypt to proceed in this direction, especially in light of the common challenges facing the two countries, whether it is economic or related to the balance of regional powers, according to Major General Abdel Wahid.
It also touched on the presence of obstacles that cannot be ignored, including Egypt’s regional alliances with the Gulf states, which represent strategic and economic partnerships that cannot be negligent in favor of rapprochement with Tehran, as well as The peace agreement between Egypt and Israel Which is part of the regional balance, and any Egyptian -Iranian rapprochement may be explained as a threat to it.
On the other hand, Ambassador Rakha Ahmed Hassan believes that the chances of overcoming obstacles are strong and realistic from the base of “interests reconciling”, explaining that the size of the common interests between Egypt and Iran exceeds the size of the differences. He pointed to the statements of the Iranian Foreign Minister in which he spoke about the possibility of developing relations in the fields of trade and tourism, as well as cooperation in major regional issues, on top of which is the Palestinian issue and the war on Gaza.
In his opinion, the Gulf security cannot be talked about seriously without the involvement of Iran, which opens the door to joint cooperation in this field as well, considering that these multiple interests represent a strong motivation for the return of relations, and that the time has come to achieve this.
It is also believed that the Egyptian and Iranian rapprochement, along with rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, constitutes a direct blow to Israeli projects aimed at isolating Tehran. This is reinforced – according to the spokesman – that Israel has become an aggressive state practicing Genocide For the Palestinians, it faces accusations in front of International Criminal CourtWhich lost her a lot of regional and international sympathy.