Al -Jazeera Net Correspondents
Tehran- In light of the conflict of the red lines of both parties, nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran are witnessing a state of stagnation with the escalation of the dispute between them Uranium enrichmentAs Iran considers it a nationally non -bargaining national, and the Republican administration sees a strategic threat that must be completely stopped on Iranian soil.
While the two -month period -which was set by the American President Donald Trump To reach a new nuclear agreement- at the end, US threats to resort to the military option will turn the diplomatic path into a race against time amid Tehran’s confirmation of adhering to its nuclear rights.
Conflict of red lines
Despite the Western reports that talk about submitting the American side a proposal – which was transferred by Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al -Busaidi to Tehran last week – it allows the Islamic Republic to continue the fertilization on its lands, but at low levels, Trump renewed his position with the lack of further enrichment.
In statements made to reporters, the US President said that Iran will not fertilize uranium in any new agreement with it, hinting on the possibility of using the military option against it, but he does not want to do so, he said.
On the other hand, Iran has categorically rejected the head of power pyramid Ali KhameneiLast Friday, the American proposal is reflecting and completely opposing the national interests, stressing that Tehran does not wait for the American “green light” to make its decisions.
Not
While Trump threatens the most bombing against Tehran nuclear facilities If she does not abandon her intention to continue uranium enrichment, similar to the launch of the policy of “maximum pressure” on it, he is considered a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Fid Hussein, the owners of negotiations on nuclear rights, “a red line” according to parliament legislation.
Speaking to Al -Jazeera Net, Maliki explains that the law “strategic action to abolish sanctions and protect the rights of the Iranian people”, which was approved by Parliament in December 2020, is obligated to the government to guarantee these rights, including “uranium enrichment”, stressing that the relevant authorities have not been authorized to negotiate the liquidation of enrichment.
And if Tehran is between the stopping of fertilization or the military option, the Iranian deputy says that his country will not call for war, but it will not give up its right to enrichment, adding that Iranian military institutions are fully prepared to confront any threats, and that any gambling against Iranian vital facilities will be met with a strict response.
Maliki notes that the strategy of the Iranian negotiating delegation is “working to lift unfair sanctions on Tehran and obtain guarantees in any possible agreement, not negotiating for the restriction of the nuclear program,” adding that Tehran, which responded to Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement to raise the percentage of uranium fertilization to 60%, did not ask for permission at the time, and will not ask for permission to exercise its right to fertilization and meet its needs From him.
Meanwhile, Iran confirmed that it “does not recognize any restrictions on the levels International Atomic Energy AgencyThe only applicable restrictions are limited to “preventing the conversion of nuclear materials towards non -peaceful purposes.”
Tehran also warned in its note, which came in response to the report of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Raphael Grossi Who discussed Tehran nuclear file The Iranian, that “Western countries’ insistence on their wrong path by exploiting Iran’s patience” will push them to implement “appropriate measures” that these countries bear their consequences.
Escalatory
For his part, the professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, Rahman Qahraman Bohr, touches the warning tone in the statements of both sides of the negotiations, noting that the talks take place in closed rooms and not media platforms, and that threats and warnings may be aimed at removing the largest amount of privileges from the opposite side.
In an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, Qahran Bohr refers to the keenness of the Iranian and American sides “not to cut the Muawiyah poetry” despite the conflict of their red lines, stressing that the two sides of the negotiations are awaiting the diplomatic path to get out of the state of inertia through an initiative or proposal submitted by one of them or the parties to the Arab mediators.
The same spokesman considered that the dilemma of “zero enrichment” is solved if the Trump administration is able to neutralize Israeli pressure on the one hand and persuade American public opinion on the other hand that the potential nuclear agreement is better than The nuclear agreement concluded in 2015 During the era of the former president Barack Obama.
Possible scenarios
In the opinion of Kahraman Port, Trump’s insistence on Iran’s lack of right to enrichment and Tehran adheres to it will lead to the diplomatic path to a dead end, especially in light of the lost confidence between them, and therefore the future of nuclear negotiations temporarily at the present time may lead to one of the potential scenarios below:
- A temporary agreement, it will be at hand if one of the parties abandoned its red lines, especially those related to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, even if they are low levels or under the supervision of an international group that includes a number of Gulf countries.
- The continued stalemate, the chances of this scenario will rise relatively if the two sides do not want to declare the failure of the diplomatic path, in light of Iran’s intention to continue its cooperation with the atomic agency and not taking escalatory steps despite the US -European cooperation to pressure it.
- Activating the trigger mechanism, after the end of the two -month period set by Trump to reach an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear file and approach the end of the nuclear agreement (October 18, 2025), where the work of the UN resolution (2231) is expected to end the possibility of activating the trigger mechanism.
- The war, if the diplomatic path fails and the trigger mechanism is activated and Iran takes escalating steps, the war scenario will be possible. But his possibilities will remain minimal, but Israel’s military move against Iranian nuclear installations may get the situation out of control.
Finally, in light of the existence of legislation in the Iranian parliament, enrichment is considered a red line that is not compromised, and that it is part of the legal obligations under the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. Will Trump push the region to a war whose uranium fuel is, or is regional mediations to move stagnant water in the diplomatic path during the coming period?