7/6/2025
The military and strategic expert confirmed the brigade Fayez Al -DuwairiThe Israeli occupation army has two options that have no third about the prisoner Matan Tsanjoker, either that the resistance enables the transfer of the prisoner to a safe place, or that his receipt accepts a dead body, stressing that any attempt to storm the site will inevitably lead to the killing of the prisoner.
Abu Ubaidah, a spokesman for Al -Qassam BrigadesThe military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitationOn Saturday, a “urgent appeal” was made in which he confirmed that an Israeli prisoner called Mattan Tsanjawker is trapped with his companions from the Al -Qassam Brigades in a place in Gaza Strip.
Abu Ubaidah held the full responsibility of the occupation army for the safety of the captive if he was subjected to any harm.
Abu Ubaidah said in a statement to Telegram: “An urgent warning to those who are interested in the matter, the occupation forces surround a place where the Zionist prisoner is located Mattan Tsanjoker.”
He added: “We categorically assert that the enemy will not be able to restore the prisoner Tsanjoker alive … and in the event of his death during the attempt to liberate it, the occupation army will be the cause of that.”
Abu Ubaidah indicated that Shade In the Al -Qassam Brigades, it was able to preserve the life of the prisoner Tsanjoker for a year and 8 months “and he was excused from warning,” according to the statement.
Al -Duwairi explained that the Abu Ubaidah warning statement comes within the framework of a strategic direction issued several months ago that the final decision to deal with the prisoners has become in the hands of the shadow forces that are guarding them directly.
A clear message
The military expert pointed out that this warning message is clearly addressed to the occupation army and the Israeli society to urge them to stop military operations on this particular point if they want to preserve the life of the prisoner.
In his interpretation of the reason for issuing this warning at this time specifically, he stressed that the military position has become very difficult at this point, as there is no room for transporting the prisoner in a safe way, neither through tunnels nor from above the ground, which means that the area is absolutely besieged and that any military operation will lead to catastrophic results.
On the fighting mentality that governs this position, Al -Duwairi stressed that the word surrender is not present in the dictionary of the elite forces and the shadow forces of the Qassam, and therefore at the time of the distant moment, the life of the shadow forces that are guarding and the life of the prisoner will end together.
He explained that this decision was resolved more than a year ago by Al -Qassam, so that the distant moment became in the hands of the leader of the shadow group and not in the hands of the High Command.
This principle, as the expert explained, is based on a firm conviction of these forces that the survival of the prisoner is mortgaged to the survival of the guard group, and that in the event of the elimination of the fighters, the life of the prisoner will end with them, regardless of who launches the last bullet.
Possible scenarios
On the potential military scenarios, Al -Duwairi explained that if the occupation forces want to obtain a chance, even a little to extract the prisoner alive, the air and artillery shelling must stop, and that the operation takes the specialized elite forces with a group of snipers for direct clash. But he warned that this clash may last for hours with the resistance forces before reaching the prisoner.
He stressed that the process is fraught with risks from more than one side, which makes the possibilities of reaching the prisoner very small, pointing out that the inevitable end will be the elimination of everyone, because the fire will be fired from multiple parties on the fighters, and they will not be eliminated except by eliminating the prisoner with them.
With regard to the decision -making mechanism on the Israeli side, Al -Duwairi explained that such a sensitive decision will not be issued by the field commander, but rather begins to deal with him from the level of the division leader.
He emphasized that the squad leader will be on the hotline with the chief of staff, Eyal ZamirWho in turn will consult with the Minister of Defense Israel Katz And the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -Required International Criminal Court.
Here lies the blatant paradox, as Al -Duwairi indicates that the world talks about the goal of the war is the release of the prisoners, while Al -Qassam says that the prisoner is alive and demands to stop the process to preserve his life.
With regard to the conditions for stopping the operations, the military expert stressed that the mere stopping of the operation may not be convincing to the division, because it can be resumed at any moment since the location of the prisoner has been determined.
Therefore, the matter requires a complete retreat from the area and give an opportunity to the Qassam to transfer the prisoner to an unknown safe place, otherwise there is no point in stopping the operation if the hostile military forces are kept around the place.
He explained that Al -Qassam is smarter than accepting half -solutions, stressing that the matter requires stopping the process and retreating from the area of operations and giving the Qassam an opportunity to transfer the prisoner to a safe place, or negotiate to hand over the prisoner through a specific exchange mechanism that guarantees the safety of the guard group as well.
Hannibal protocol
With regard to the interest of the Israeli leadership in the life of the prisoners, Al -Duwairi stressed that he does not believe that the life of the prisoner is important to Netanyahu, noting that Hannibal protocol The Israeli, who has repeatedly applied, is very clear that the dead prisoner is better than the live prisoner.
He expected that if this law is applied, there will be no problem in the end of the prisoner’s life and elimination.
The expert believes that the warnings received in the statement of Abu Ubaidah carry political references in the first place, linked to the nature of the continuity of military operations in the Gaza Strip.
He explained that the Palestinian resistance clearly says that the equation is that as long as the army forces in the Gaza Strip are progressing, the lives of the prisoners will not be safe, and that these prisoners will be exposed to the same danger that the Palestinians are exposed to.
He pointed out that this is not a psychological war or propaganda, but rather a real threat and warning that the Palestinian resistance provides clearly to the Israeli public.
Al -Duwairi cited previous incidents that occurred in Jabalia camp In September 2024, when the army approached the location of 6 Israeli prisoners, they were all killed, as well as in Al -Shuja’ia neighborhood When the army killed 3 prisoners on the street in front of the cameras.
The expert explained that both the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff are weak in front of Netanyahu, and neither of them dares to take a decision that violates his main orientation, which leads to the conclusion that Netanyahu is the one who completely controls the game.
Consequently, the ball is now at Netanyahu Stadium, his defense minister and the chief of staff of his army, and Al -Qassam presented the clear message that cannot be interpreted.