Washington- Since Israel began its attack on Iran, calls have increased in the traditional Conservative circles in Washington, in addition to the Jewish lobby groups, to change the regime in Tehran. This conversation doubled as soon as the United States launched air and missile attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities at dawn on Sunday.
Officially, senior American officials denied any intention of their country to change the regime in Tehran, but this did not stop speculation of the possibility of taking and possibly help in this step if the situation changed and Iranian retaliations began against Washington’s interests.
The supporters of the neo -conservative stream (a current that supports America’s external dominance) attributes the seriousness of the possibility of changing the regime to the success of the intense Israeli intelligence attacks against IranWhich led to the assassination of a number of senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists, and sabotage of defensive facilities, and to reach weather domination of Iranian airspace.
Past
They argue that Tehran, which is under pressure and strikes, has not stopped for more than a week, may be more willing to conclude a deal and give up its nuclear ambitions, which may pave the way for an internal change of the regime.
But they ignore the lesson of the past two decades that surrender does not lead to safety, as it has already been eliminated Saddam Hussein His country was invaded, after which the former Libyan President abandoned Muammar Gaddafi On his nuclear program, it was overthrown.
There is a reason to change the system is unrealistic, so the experience of the American president George Bush Jr. The failed with Iraq and Afghanistan is still stuck in the minds of millions of Americans, especially with its high human and material cost; In addition to hundreds of thousands of Iraqi dead and wounded, the Afghans, at least 7,000 Americans were killed and tens of thousands of them were injured.
However, this did not prevent American voices close to Israel, from calling for a change in the regime in Iran, while confirming that this is unlikely to happen on its own, and that it only needs a direct American batch.
American analysts often reduce the strength of the Iranian state, and this may contribute to this hostility between the two countries for more than 4 decades, and Tehran closed the door to visits of American researchers and specialists.
After September 11 attacksSeptember, despite Tehran’s help calmly in its war against Taliban movement“The joint enemy of both countries”, President Bush Jr. pointed out in the speech “The Union’s Condition” to Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as part of the “Axis of Evil”.
It is absent from the Washington research circles that the Iranian army, with its double structure, is designed to resist the coups, and in addition to the regular armed forces through the land, sea, air and air defense forces, there are forces Revolutionary Guard.
And behind all this is the “Basij” Foundation, which is a wide paramilitary network that includes hundreds of thousands of its members in every corner of Iranian society, in neighborhoods, schools and mosques, and they are not necessarily loyal to the Iranian regime, but are committed to defending state institutions and independence of Iran.
The coup engineering
Washington and Handaus have previously contributed to the arrangement of a coup that overthrew an Iranian government elected in 1953, and the Iranians remember this well.
That year, the United States helped organize a coup to overthrow the Democratic Iranian Prime Minister Muhammad Mossadeq After pledged to nationalize the oil fields in the country. It is the step that Washington and Britain considered a dangerous blow, given their dependence on oil from the Middle East during that period.
In the context of the US Cold War, the Soviet Cold War was seen as a victory forThe Soviet Union Then.
The goal of the coup was support Mohamed Reda PahlaviTo rule as a severity of Iran, and the appointment of a new prime minister, who is General Fadlallah Zuhdi.
And before the coup, it helped Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) With the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the Security Agency cooperating with them, in stirring anti -Mustafa’s strife by using misleading propaganda and in mobilizing forces loyal to the Shah together and organizing major protests against Mossadegh, which the army soon joined.
The British documents showed that, to provide Zahdi, the new prime minister of the country, with some stability, the CIA secretly allowed 5 million dollars within two days of taking power.
In 2013, documents were issued – which were dismissed by the agency – which confirmed its involvement for the first time. But the role of the United States is renewed with the recognition of the former American president Barack Obama With his desire for a 2009 coup with the start of a wave of demonstrations calling for more freedoms, it was quickly suppressed.
After the overthrow of the truthful, Washington has strengthened its support to Haloui, and the Iranians resented foreign interference, which fueled the anti -United States feelings in Iran and the absence of confidence so far. After the Shah became a close ally of America, and in the late seventies, millions of Iranians descended to the streets against his regime, which they considered corrupt and illegal.
A continuous break
The secular demonstrators opposed the tyranny of the Shah, while the Islamic demonstrators opposed his agenda to modernize. And overthrow it in Revolution In 1979, which ended the US -backed monarchy regime, it was preached to the beginning of the Islamic Republic and the rule of clerics by the hands of Ayatollah Khomeini.
After the success of the revolution, and because of the American support for the regime and symbols of the rule of the Shah, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran and detained dozens of Americans as hostages, and demanded Washington to hand over the Shah to try it. Washington had allowed Haloui to enter the treatment at the Advanced Cancer Center in the state of Texas.
444 days later, Iran released the hostages in exchange for raising the freezing of the country’s assets minutes after the performance of the former president Ronald Reagan The constitutional oath. During the crisis, the United States cut all official diplomatic relations with Tehran, and has not been restored to this day.
Some experts ask whether Washington’s attacks on Iran could lead to internal political explosions that threaten the survival of the Iranian revolutionary regime.
Israel has not hidden the hope that its attack would cause the fall of this regime, but such a collapse of the government could lead to a more hostile and dangerous system, which may be led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards, with the belief of Americans.
If the Iranian state is dissolved, a civil war may erupt and catastrophic instability can spread beyond the borders of Iran.
The Wall Street newspaper promotes the step of changing the system in Tehran despite its risks, and one of its editorials says two days ago, that “it is difficult to believe that the successor of the Iranian revolutionary regime that has taken power since 1979 can be worse for the region than the current system.”
“The new leaders may want to abandon any nuclear ambitions and join the new world of trade emerging in the Middle East, while the current regime will continue to dominate the region.”