While the war between Iran and Israel was entering its twelfth day, the confrontation seemed temporarily after Israel announced its acceptance of a ceasefire.
In the early hours, Israel claimed that Iran had violated the truce because of the launch of a missile, and announced that it would respond, but it is clear that things would not have escalated more. The general mood, objective conditions, and the entire path of war showed the necessity of stopping the fighting from the point of view of all parties.
This endowment of fire is similar to the extent of the armistice that took place between Israel and Hamas in December; It reflects in essence a breakdown to Israel.
Since the beginning, Israel has entered this war driven by excessive vanity, indifferent to its American weapons and full support from Washington, and is excessive in its confidence in its intelligence and its prior perceptions of Iran. Twelve days later, she found herself facing a shocking reality, as pre -calculations did not match the field facts.
Her intelligence on Iran initially helped her, but she quickly left alone in facing the facts on the ground. The truth is that, during the fifty years of the Cold War, Iran has developed defensive capabilities that exceed expectations.
Israel had to be surprised at every stage with a new weapon that you did not expect, until it turned into a nightmare within a few days. The “iron dome” that Israel was boasting of, and the missiles began to fall on the streets of Tel Aviv, the port of Haifa, oil installations, and air bases, and the war turned into a real catastrophe.
Israel did not expect to resist this level of Gaza, which has been besieging it for 17 years as if it were a detention camp, and did not imagine that Hamas had this amazing combat force. It also did not occur to her that Iranian military technology would harm her in this way. Even the assassinations that I carried out in the early days, which targeted prominent names, led her to an early ecstasy, quickly turned into a high ceiling that is difficult to reach.
Although Iran lost prominent figures, it responded in the following days as if nothing had been, using new sound missiles in its first test, and Israel rained in terror.
It may seem that the losses are uneven between the two parties, but when looking at the effect of these losses, it is clear that the major loss was from Israel, and this is what practically prompted it to accept the armistice.
As is the case in its war with Gaza, Israel has not approached its declared goals. It is said to have struck Iranian nuclear facilities, but it is clear that these strikes were formal. This situation was essential even for the United States itself, as it was not in its interest to escalate more.
Was it possible to escalate more? Was Iran’s hand free of options? Of course not. Tehran has announced that it had already learned the intention to target its nuclear facilities, and transmitted the elaborate uranium from threatened sites. It also showed, through her response against Israel and against American targets, that she is not unable to respond in the event of a greater escalation.
Consequently, reaching a kind of balance via a strength review is the most rational way for both parties. Indeed, if Iran, if it loses its ability to nuclear threat, it will not be feasible in America’s accounts in the region.
For this reason, the United States cannot, even if it wants, can completely prepare Iran’s capabilities; Because this will be with the regional balance that Washington plans.
However, even within the limits of this limited escalation, America’s strategy in the Middle East was severely affected. From now on, the “Iranian threat” paper is no longer effective as it was, and the statement of the meeting of the Foreign Ministry of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul showed that the danger that was seen in Iran began to be replaced by the danger of “Zionism” in the collective awareness of the Muslim peoples.
Hence, the system that was based on intimidating the Gulf states from Iran began to erode.
As for Donald Trump, he showed a sudden eagerness to stop the war he described as “the Twelve War”. This desire shows the size of the Israeli influence on US foreign policy. Trump has been on a war he did not want because of Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s role in influencing the American decision has become a serious question, especially for the American citizen himself.
And if Trump has been famous for his existence, his blatant confusion in this war will increase doubts about the stability of American policy. In an article published by the Wall Street Journal two days ago, it was written that US national security had a devastating blow because of his inability to say “no” to Israel.
The article talked about the exile of Israel’s missiles, and America’s inability to provide them with sufficient quantities. She pointed out that the Israeli defense system consists of four systems, the most important of which is the “Arrow 3” system, designed to intercept long -range ballistic missiles. Although Israel claimed it had dropped 90 % of the 370 Iranian missiles, the time is that Iran has much greater stock that Israel can carry.
The article continued: America helps, but it does not have much. It only has enough smart missiles to fight a comprehensive war that extends for three or four weeks, and then you need 4-6 years to return the stock to what it was. At this time, America will not find what it offers to Israel, Ukraine, or even Europe.
The article concluded that Israel, which has long been documented in America, found it unable to fight a long war against Iran. Rather, the continued bleeding means the depletion of the weapons planned to use against China, which endanger the US national security.
Thus, although Israel’s declared goal was to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and Tehran’s military capabilities, it did not bear more than 12 days of the Iranian response.
Today, the Iranian nuclear program is closer to activation than before the war. Indeed, the Israeli aggression gave Iran a strong boost at home, and a sudden international legitimacy.
Ultimately, if there is a real nuclear threat, Israel – as a racist nuclear force and crimes against humanity – is the one that poses the greatest danger to humanity.
If it is the duty to take measures against the nuclear threat, then Israel is the last to have the right to do so; Rather, after this aggression, it has become an embodiment of the danger that justifies the taking of all measures, even nuclear, in its confrontation.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.