30/6/2025–|Last update: 00:31 (Mecca time)
Political analysts believe that the American president Donald Trump He seeks to invest the military strike of Iran in achieving a political breakthrough that exempts his ally, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu From the worsening impasse in Gaza StripAnd prepares the floor for a deal that stops the war and invests in electoral.
According to their discretion, the shift in Trump’s position reflects a clear desire to save Netanyahu -also required For the International Criminal Court On the charge of committing war crimes in the sector- through a regional settlement, it opens the door to end the war, enhance the path of normalization in the region, and arrange the regional scene to ensure the interests of Washington andTel Aviv.
While Trump spoke on his “Truth Social” platform about an “imminent agreement” to end the war in Gaza, the Israeli channel “Can” said that Trump’s publications are not spontaneous, but rather part of a major plan aimed at ending Netanyahu’s trial, and devotion to closing major regional files that include Gaza andIran.
In this context, the writer and political analyst Ahmed Al -Haila believes that the performance of the Israeli army in Gaza refers to the failure of failure, especially since the military means did not achieve any actual achievement in restoring the prisoners or breaking the resistance, which requires decision makers to think about a political exit that preserves face water.
This estimate is intersecting with the content of media leaks that talked about differences within the Israeli leadership regarding the feasibility of the continuation of the war, especially after the Political Staff recommended investing the “Iranian achievement” in producing political gains through a prisoner exchange deal, rather than involved in a long war without a horizon.
In his talk to the “Path of Events” program, Al -Haila considered that the war between Israel and Iran was articulated, and that Trump realized that the continuation of the confrontation in Gaza may threaten regional stability, especially the interests of American energy, and then pressed towards a political settlement that includes stopping the war.
An electoral opportunity
He also pointed out that Netanyahu sees in the “achievement” that was achieved against Iran, an electoral opportunity, which may enable him to leave Gaza without taking failure, and thus going to early elections supported by an external victory and internally concession from the failed military option, in line with an Israeli public opinion that prefers to end the war and reach a deal.
In the same context, it seemed that the timing of the strike on Iran gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity to restore his shameful image, and to appear as the victorious leader, allowing him to persuade his right -wing fans of the necessity of ending the operations in Gaza, without losing his political legitimacy, or appears to be retreating in front of internal and external pressures.
Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, an academic specialist in the Israeli affairs, believes that the war on Iran represented a turning point in Israeli accounts, as before the strike, Netanyahu avoided ending the war for fear of the fall of his government, but today it is moving with greater confidence, after it was proven to support the right and his willingness to justify any future settlement.
It is noteworthy that the mini -ministerial council ended its security meeting without taking a decisive decision on continuing the war or accepting a deal, which analysts read as an indication of a contrast within the ruling institution, especially with the insistence of ministers of the far right such as Smutrich and Bin Ghafir to reject any agreement, even if it is partial.
Despite these objections, the data indicate that Netanyahu is no longer caused by his alliances, and that he is ready to move towards an agreement that requires a 60 -day truce, during which a final stop of fighting is negotiated, in conjunction with the restoration of the prisoners and the return of the residents of the settlements adjacent to Gaza.
In a different translation of the data, the researcher in strategic studies, Kenneth Katzmann, goes that Trump sees in Netanyahu a fundamental partner that can be bet, especially after his success in hitting Iran, which made him more willing to make concessions in Gaza, as part of regional understandings that guarantee the exit of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitationFrom the ruling.
Solid facts
But these American perceptions collide – as it clarifies the trick – with solid field facts, the first of which is that Israel has not succeeded in achieving any of the goals of the war, not the displacement of the population, the destruction of the resistance, nor the imposition of new facts in Gaza, which makes the idea of imposing superstructure without Palestinian consent is unrealistic.
Talking about the deportation of Hamas leaders to 4 Arab countries – according to Katzman – does not have any acceptance on the ground, neither from the movement itself, nor from the Palestinian parties, which announced from the beginning their willingness to discuss post -war arrangements without exclusion or dictation, on the basis that Hamas will not rule in the future, but it will not be canceled.
In this context, the trick believes that the acceptance of Hamas with a ceasefire does not mean a recognition of defeat, but rather a response to the logic of balances, just as the statements of the former Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, in which he called for the release of the prisoners first and then looking at the future of the movement, reflects a shift in the mentality of the Israeli leadership.
Trump pressures an urgent settlement, Muhannad Mustafa believes that Netanyahu is now looking at ending the war as an opportunity to enhance his upcoming electoral opportunities, based on what he calls “Iranian victory”, and our advocates on a regional transformation that allows him to push normalization relations forward, provided that the enthusiasm of the scene does not lead the next day.
Mustafa notes that the Netanyahu government may accept the removal of Hamas from power without dismantling its military wing, in exchange for ensuring Israel’s freedom to carry out military strikes whenever it sees a threat, which is close to the model that Tel Aviv deals with southern Lebanon since the end of the recent aggression against Lebanon.