In a scene that reflects the size of the interconnectedness between politics and the market, it seemed remarkable that both the American strike today of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the Israeli strike For Iran On June 13, they were implemented outside the trading hours in the global stock exchanges.
The Israeli attack came on Friday evening, hours before the closure of global markets, while the American strike was carried out at the weekend, which allowed the markets an opportunity to absorb the shock during the closure period, and the granting of central banks and economic decision makers is a time space to prepare.
This pattern indicates that the military accounts are taking into account the rhythm of global financial markets, for fear that the wrong time will lead to unwanted economic chaos. In a world in which policy is intertwined with money and energy, wars are no longer managed from operating rooms, but also from the financial centers.
This temporal estimate reflects a kind of keenness to prevent surprises in oil, gold, currencies, or stocks, and to ensure the stability of markets as much as possible despite the military escalation.
Since the Israeli strike on Iran on the 13th of this month, Brent futures jumped by 11%, but with sharp fluctuations up and down from day to day, it is expected that this rise will be resumed tomorrow, Monday, after the American attack, which targeted the locations of Fordo, Tanz and Isfahan, led to a significant increase in the risks in an area representing a third of global oil production, especially after reports of the possibility of Iran closing a strait Hormuz Kurds on American strikes.
From the markets of turbulent options, to the great rise in shipping and diesel prices, all of these fluctuations are expected to intensify in the coming days.
Iran’s reaction
The head of the market research at “OWCtz”, Asem Mansour, expects to increase insurance rates on oil tankers, which will in turn raise shipping prices, especially with Iran’s hinting using a paper Hormuz Strait In pressure on the United States and taking a military action, which is to disrupt the ships passing through the strait, which causes oil tankers to change their direction.
Mansour is likely in a comment to (Al -Jazeera Net) that oil prices will rise to $ 100 per barrel or more, according to the intensity of Iran’s reaction, indicating that the American strike revealed the region on the possibilities that were excluded in some way before.
But he pointed out that the prices in the medium term depend on the escalation of the confrontation later or escalation, pointing to the difficulty of expecting oil prices in the long term and that the matter needs permanent anticipation of successive events.
He ruled out that the impact of the Israeli strike would be ten days ago, such as the impact of the American strike for many reasons, including that the Israeli strike was followed by calls for calm, which limited the gains in oil prices, but with the entry of a greater party (the United States) and Iran’s talk about the right to respond has become more likely to escalate.
Energy analyst at MTT Market, Sol Cavonic, agrees with Mansour that it depends on how Iran responded in the coming hours and days, and that the price of a barrel may rise to $ 100 a barrel, if Iran responded as it had previously threatened, according to Bloomberg.
He added: “This American attack may lead to the conflict, including Iran’s response to targeting American regional interests, including Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq, or the harassment of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The naval corridor at the entrance to the Arabian Gulf is a vital corridor not only for Iranian shipments, but for shipments coming from Saudi Arabia And Iraq Kuwait and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The market strategy, Jad Hariri, says that directing the American strike to Iran at the end of the week has no effect on the expected altitudes, suggesting the rise of the American crude barrel to the level of $ 80 a barrel at the beginning of tomorrow’s reins, up from $ 74 when the trading of last Friday’s trading is settled.
Hariri expected in a comment to (Al -Jazeera Net) that gold would rise 40 dollars with the beginning of tomorrow’s trading with the decrease in American stock indicators by between 100 and 200 points.
Trump’s intention
During the past few days, it seemed to be a matter of time until the United States joined the war on Iran more than a matter of possibility, then this changed late on Thursday, when Trump said that he would study his decision for two weeks, and in the early hours of Sunday morning, US President Donald Trump announced that Fordo, Nanz and Isfahan had been bombed, describing a “bombs of bombs” threw on Fordo, the main site To enrich uranium.
Hours later, in a televised speech to the nation, the American president said that the strikes “completely destroyed” the three goals, threatening at the same time with more military action if they were not concluded Tehran A peace agreement with Israel.
“The market needs certainty, and this pays it. US Strongly to the theater of events in The Middle East“It is now expected that prices are now expected when the markets are reopened, adding that oil prices may range between 80 and 90 dollars a barrel.
However, no indicators have yet shown that there was a breakdown in oil flows from the region.
“If the United States provides direct military support For Israel She played a role in the overthrow of the current regime in Iran, so the initial response to the market will be a sharp rise in prices.
Oil prices move the prices of its fuel derivatives and then have an impact on Inflation – It is a matter of Trump’s pledge to calm him down during his election campaign, and in times of severe fluctuations, oil shortage accelerated stagnation.
So far, no concrete reduction on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one -fifth of produced and starting oil in the world passes through the world daily, but rather that Iran is rushing to increase its exports as part of its logistical response to the conflict.