The administration of US President Trump has so far fought about five negotiating rounds with Iran on the latter’s nuclear file, ending these tours with an Israeli attack in the Iranian depth preceded by some American citizens in the region. The Iranian Islamic Revolution has caused a milestone in the historical relations between the United States of America and the State of Iran, as the United States was preparing the former Shah Iran regime as an important strategic ally after the end of World War II in the stability of the Middle East. The United States of America was not then needed to send its naval fleets or soldiers to protect its strategic interests in the region. Iran has begun to think about using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes since the era of the Shah with limited American assistance.
The Shah of Iran was playing the role of the American policeman at that time, until the Iranian revolution and the consequences that followed in the American -Iranian scene. Iran’s desire to expand has increased significantly in the production of peaceful nuclear energy during the past two decades, making it eligible to produce nuclear weapons whenever the political will of its production is available.
Therefore, the Iranian nuclear file was one of the main issues that occupy the interests of US foreign policy in the Middle East.
However, why did US President Trump allow Israel to attack Iran at the present time, despite the recent negotiating rounds between the United States and Iran?
Trump’s external directions and the Iranian nuclear file
At the beginning of his second term, US President Trump’s political desire to reach a political agreement with Iran prevents the latter to obtain nuclear weapons without resorting to using the option of US military power to achieve this.
US President Trump canceled the recent nuclear agreement with Iran, which was signed by the administration of former US President Barack Obama, describing that agreement at the time as a “very bad agreement” that allowed Iran to obtain billions of US dollars, and reduced it many of the economic sanctions imposed on it at the time.
Therefore, President Trump, when entering the White House – during his first term – entered his first term – to cancel this nuclear agreement by the United States of America, at the same time, worsening strong economic sanctions against Iran.
It is worth noting here that the current President Joe Biden was unable to conclude another nuclear agreement with the state of Iran, and therefore the relationship between the United States and Iran remained tense to the present time.
President Trump came to the White House as elected president for the second time early this year, carrying with him the “stick and carrot” as an external political approach towards Iran, stressing once again the desire of his administration to conclude an agreement that prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, in exchange for lifting the recent sanctions targeting the oil industry in Iran and its export, as well as commercial and financial transactions with Iranian banks.
President Trump believed that this American “carrot” may return to the great economic benefit of some American companies, in the event of a major political and economic breakthrough between Iran and the United States, which seems to be weak now in light of the recent Israeli attacks against Iranian targets.
Trump tried to conclude an agreement with Iran, using a method in which he raises the ceiling of his negotiating demands, such as his desire to stop uranium enrichment completely, which Iran did not agree, as it always demands its sovereign right to enrich uranium to fewer degrees, to benefit from it in civil uses according to the specifications of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Trump also tried to negotiate gradual approval to lift economic sanctions on Iran, rather than lifting them completely once as the latter demands.
This issue – in addition to Iran’s demands to maintain its right to enrich uranium for peaceful uses – was the other obstacle to reaching a new nuclear agreement.
Undoubtedly, Gulf brokers, led by the Sultanate of Oman and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, tried to seek the relentlessness to bring the American and Iranian views to solve the problem of the Iranian nuclear file peacefully, and avoid the region more wars and military tensions.
Trump has been constantly waving the Israeli stick against Iran as another strategic option in the event of a failure to reach a nuclear agreement, and Iran’s insistence on continuing the uranium enrichment process with high degrees.
Israel and the United States were in a race against time to stop the Iranian nuclear program fully stop, especially with the frequency of international reports that indicated Iran increased the degrees of uranium enrichment a significant increase that makes it very close to the production of nuclear weapons.
President Trump hopes that the war will not widen after the recent Israeli attacks, and that the Iranian response be limited, as was the matter when it was assassinated by the Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
President Trump may hope that Iran later returns to the negotiating table after removing the greatest danger in its nuclear program.
But Perhaps Trump does not realize the danger of exchanging Israeli and Iranian attacks on the Middle East and world peace, and the United States may find itself forced to fight war again in the Middle East region if things are completely controlled.
Israel’s position
Through its recent attacks against Iran, Israel is trying to appear strong to dominate the region, and it is fighting in several sides in Gaza, Yemen and Iran. However, Israel also seems more vulnerable this time than it was more than ten years ago, when former President Barack Obama was negotiating Iran on its nuclear file.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bet on his political capabilities to persuade Trump to attack Iran and destroy its nuclear facilities, but President Trump wants Israel to carry out itself that attack, stressing that this is a unilateral Israeli attack, not in coordination with the United States of America.
Israel can achieve some strategic goals during these attacks, because of its intelligence information, which made it able to target some Iranian military leaders, but in the long run, Israel will not be able to enter into a long war against Iran, and it is also fighting in Gaza, receiving Houthi missiles, and suffering from great international isolation.
Whatever US President Trump provides military support to Israel, the consequences of prolonging the war between Israel and Iran will cost the United States of America a lot of losses, and Russia and China will give an opportunity to strengthen their influence in the Middle East.
Netanyahu believes that the continuation of the Israeli war machine is the only guarantee of its survival in power, and to unite the Israeli parties behind its army as it is fighting these wars.
However, the fire has increased around Israel, and it has become more likely to target in its security depth compared to the wars it fought in the past.
Iran’s position is expected
The Iranian strategy with regard to weapons of mass destruction is based on benefiting from the political lessons of three countries that dealt with the United States of America, namely: North Korea, Iraq and Libya.
The Iraqi situation reveals that the presentation of major concessions, such as the concessions of former President Saddam Hussein – and allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency to search until his presidential palaces – did not intercede for him at the George Bush administration to avoid war on his country.
As for the Libyan model, it came after the Iraq war, when the Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi made a complete waiver of his nuclear program, and he agreed to provide billions of dollars as financial compensation to the victims of his regime from Western citizens and others.
These major concessions led to the lifting of the economic embargo imposed on Libya, and the acceptance of dealing with it in the Western international community, before the regime was overthrown after the Arab Spring revolution in Libya.
As for the Korean model, it remains the closest to Iran, as North Korea adopted a great concern until it was able to possess the nuclear bomb, and then it became difficult to control it or launch an international war against it.
But the regional conditions surrounding Iran differ from those surrounding Korea.
These negotiations also came in a regional framework in which Iran lost a lot of its dominance, such as the loss of its ally Assad in Syria, and its weak ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But the option to continue to enrich uranium will remain an Iranian strategic choice – including the ability to produce the long -term nuclear bomb – you will not be able to waive it easily, as the administration of US President Trump expected.
Therefore, the recent Israeli attacks will not deter the state of Iran from continuing its nuclear program, because it is considered the first guarantor of its security, as is the case of the North Korean state.
Iran will have a rapid attack against Israel, and to prepare for a long -term war, in the event of continued Israeli attacks, as Iran appears more prepared and experienced in long -term wars than Israel.
US President Trump can give Israel the green light to attack Iran, but it is never able to give the red light to stop the war between them.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.