Two experts in international and Israeli affairs agree that negotiations Iranian nuclear file It faces great complications, amid Tehran’s adherence to its red lines, on top of which is the refusal to stop uranium enrichment inside its territory, which makes it difficult to reach an agreement, despite the indicators of the relative openness to American proposals.
While attention is turning to the Omani capital, Muscat, where the sixth round of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran will be held, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced its adherence to its position rejecting any discussion about stopping uranium enrichment, without closing the door to listening to the ideas presented.
The professor of international relations at the University of Cambridge, Roxanman Varman Varameyan, believes that Tehran, despite its solid dialect, realizes that the nuclear agreement is still an important opportunity that is in its strategic interest, and it may avoid it more risks in the short term, including the risk of the outbreak of a regional war.
Pharmean believes that reaching an agreement may lead to an escalation between Iran AndIsraelIt can also prevent any possible American military intervention, in addition to stimulating the Iranian economy and expanding Tehran’s political presence in the region, especially in the Gulf region.
Although its approval that the Iranian position appears solid, the international expert indicates the possibility of tactical flexibility, especially since Iran used Russian uranium at Bushehr station, and it can accept the proposal for uranium enrichment outside its territory, if it guarantees the preservation of its face in front of the Iranian interior.
On the other hand, Ihab Jabareen, the Israeli affairs writer, considered that the United States is employing Israeli waving to escalate against Iran as a negotiating pressure tool, and uses its relationship with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu As a body of the elasticity or strictness of Tehran at every stage.
Jabareen believes that this is not the first time that Israel has waved a military strike against Iranian nuclear establishments, a paper that has been used to strengthen the American negotiating position, without receiving actual green light from Washington.
Unprecedented
Jabareen talks about unprecedented cracking in the relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv, especially since the Iraq war, describing the current dispute as “the deepest in two decades”, and is directly related to three barbed files: the Iranian nuclear project, the Gaza war, and security arrangements in the region.
In the midst of these differences, Jabareen stressed that Iran is still the largest knot of Netanyahu, who seeks to invest this file to restore its political momentum locally, in light of an internal crisis that ravages its government against the background of the recruitment file and possible elections.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has confirmed that the next round of the talks has not yet reached a dead end, and that Tehran will be presented in response to the American proposal, which keeps the door open for more negotiation, despite the continued state of mutual doubt between the two parties.
Pharmean believes that Iran may be wrong in its bet on creating a rift between Washington and Tel Aviv, considering that playing on this exact balance complicates the mission of the American President Donald TrumpWhich seeks to calm the fronts and avoid an open war.
Pharmean pointed out that Iran is required to partially reduce fertilization if it wants to keep negotiations alive, especially since Trump negotiates more than one front, and needs concessions from both sides to confirm its containment strategy.
From the point of view of Jabareen, the Israeli hinting of the escalation is embarrassing Washington, because any sudden step from Netanyahu may drag the United States to a confrontation that it does not want, which prompted Trump – according to Israeli sources – to demand Netanyahu to get the attack file out of public circulation.
Regarding the Iranian “red lines”, especially with regard to enrichment, Varameyan expects to make an offer that allows Iran to maintain a limited activity in exchange for greater openness to international inspection, especially in light of the pressure of the Atomic Energy Agency that may soon make a decision against Tehran.
A strong batch of negotiations
The international expert believes that Iran has an opportunity to show a new transparency in dealing with the nuclear file, by offering a proposal that opens the way for a new tour of Muscat, which may be based on understandings that include enrichment and inspection mechanisms, which may give negotiations a strong boost.
As for Jabareen, it is believed that Netanyahu is betting on closing the political paths to go towards the military path, to confirm the independence of his political and security decision, especially in light of the escalation of American pressure and the intensification of electoral competition internally.
It indicates that Netanyahu has become a “captive” of this file for more than 15 years, and uses it constantly to escape forward, and he is afraid that his hand will be withdrawn as a pressure card if negotiations lead to a comprehensive agreement in the Middle East.
He adds that a comprehensive calm deal may not be attractive to the Israeli Prime Minister, but rather his internal arguments, so he may prefer to ignite the Tehran Front instead of entering into a long -term deal that includes a calm in Gaza, where he feels that his hand is tied to field reality and international pressure.
Pharmean believes that the possibility of Iran beating by Israel remains limited, as long as Washington explicitly rejects this, and is working to direct the file towards a diplomatic settlement, noting that Trump is keen to achieve a negotiating achievement, after stumbling in the files of Ukraine and Gaza.
In light of the threat to present a condemnation decision against Iran at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Varameyan confirms that the time has become a decisive factor, especially with the approaching October, the possible date for the return of European sanctions if progress has not been made.
Jabareen believes that Israel has 3 levels of anxiety towards a potential agreement in Muscat: internal is the loss of Netanyahu’s stronger paper, and a strategic strategy related to fear of Iran’s survival on the “nuclear bomb threshold”, and tactical is the possibility of American pressure to decline in Tehran.