Global confusion with Trump’s approaching threat to return to high fees economy

The world is awaiting great concern for July 9, as the deadline granted by the American president ends Donald Trump For countries wishing to avoid Customs The exorbitant that promised to impose.

The global markets were shaken last April when Trump revealed his controversial plan known as “Liberation Day”, which requires a fee of 50% on imports of dozens of countries.

But Trump returned and suspended the implementation of these procedures for a period of 90 days, leaving the fields for countries to negotiate, while dark clouds remained over the future of global trade, according to an expanded report published by Al -Jazeera.

Last moment negotiations

With the end of the deadline approaching the Trump administration is moving forward towards implementation, Trump stated on Sunday that he will start this week by sending official messages to countries that did not sign commercial agreements, explaining the rates of new fees.

The American president was not satisfied with that, but rather confirmed that he had concluded agreements with what he called “most countries”, without specifying them by name.

In an interview with CNN, the US Treasury Secretary stressed Scott Bessent However, the fees will enter into force on the first of August next, and that it will return to the levels previously announced at the beginning of last April, denying any talk about a new extension of the deadline.

However, it is noteworthy that Trump waved last Friday that the fees can be raised to an unprecedented level of 70%, in an escalation that increased the confusion of the markets, especially since it was accompanied by another sudden threat announced by the president on his platform “Truth Social” to impose additional fees of 10% on countries that are allied with policies Brex GroupWhich mainly includes China And Russia India, Brazil and South Africa, along with countries that have recently joined.

European and Indian anxiety

Amid this increasing chaos, the capitals are racing to conclude agreements that avoid the scourge of commercial confrontation, and only 3 declared agreements have been concluded, namely China and the United Kingdom The homes.

China has succeeded in reducing the fees on its imports from 145% to 30%, while the fees imposed on American exports to it fell from 125% to 10%, but the agreement was not always, but rather a freezing for 90 days, without an actual solution to the outstanding problems between the two sides.

As for Britain, it clung to 10% as customs duties on its exports, while Vietnam witnessed a reduction in its fees from 46% to 20%, in addition to imposing 40% on the re -exported goods through it.

And behind the scenes, major economic powers such as European Union India To reach quick solutions.

A report by the Washington Post reported by Al -Jazeera revealed that the European Union is working to conclude a “structural agreement” temporarily avoiding American drawings, to postpone the major contentious files to a later time.

In India, CNBC reported that New Delhi It approaches the signing of a “mini agreement” within 48 hours, with a average fee of about 10%.

Functions on the global economy

Experts quoted by Al Jazeera English believe that Trump will announce a limited number of agreements similar to those signed by China, Vietnam and Britain, but will maintain the actual threat to impose comprehensive fees on the rest of the countries.

“The customs duties will remain, but the difference will be at the level of the ratio,” said Lawyer Andrew McClenster of the Holland & Knight company, adding that the American administration will impose the highest proportions on the countries that it considers to hinder American products through customs or non -customs barriers. “

As for the expected economic impact, it indicates estimates World Bank AndOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development Until the continuation of these drawings may weaken Economic growth The global, as the World Bank reduced its expectations from 2.8% to 2.3%, while the organization reduced its expectations from 3.3% to 2.9%.

According to “JP Morgan” estimates, the imposition of public fees of 10% – and 110% on China specifically – will reduce gross domestic product The global is 1%, but if it is limited to imposing 60%fees on China, the contraction will be in the range of 0.7%.

Until the moment there were no dramatic effects on the markets, the rate Inflation The American last May reached only 2.3%, and it is close to the federal reserve goal, and the American economy added 147,000 jobs last June, exceeding expectations.

However, some indicators show a cautious anticipation, as consumer spending decreased by 0.1% for the first time since last January, indicating the possibility of curbing demand in the coming months.

The Dutch ING agency concluded its weekly analysis by saying that “the postponement of fees on China saved the global economy from a possible stagnation, but it is too early to declare full survival.”

The agency added that “the labor market is the last place where economic shocks damage appear, so the stability of employment does not mean that we have passed the danger yet.”

In the end, it seems that the coming days will determine the features of the global trade system for decades, and while leaders are rushing to save their economies from Trump’s customs trap, the world is awaiting if it is Washington It will fulfill its threats, or will it be a permanent weapon in mystery in a commercial war without a clear end.