The Middle East and the entire world breathed a sigh of relief when US President Donald Trump announced, on June 24, 2025, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, ending a 12 -day war.
This agreement is a temporary diplomatic achievement, which reflects the desire of the parties involved in the struggle to avoid a long -term war that the region may drown in greater chaos. However, this war is nothing but a new chapter in an Israeli-Iranian-deep-rooted Israeli conflict, it may be just an introduction to more dangerous confrontations in the future.
The ceasefire is a tactical achievement of all parties concerned. For the United States and Israel, the strikes that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities are a strategic success, as it was announced that they had caused significant damage to the Iranian nuclear program.
For his part, President Trump stressed that this military operation achieved its targets without dragging the United States into a comprehensive regional war, which is in line with his policy that avoids direct military involvement in the Middle East. On the other hand, Israel was severely damaged by Iranian missile attacks, which made the endowment stopping an urgent necessity to reduce human and economic losses.
On the part of Iran, the agreement provides an opportunity to avoid a long -term war that would have been an existential threat to the regime. Despite the damage to its nuclear facilities, Tehran insists that its nuclear program is still standing and is not decisively affected.
This discourse reflects Iran’s attempt to preserve its image as a solid regional power, capable of confronting its opponents despite the consequences of the war. However, this agreement does not end the basic conflict between Israel and Iran.
This conflict has evolved from indirect confrontations through regional agents to an open war, especially after the events of October 20, 2023, which was a turning point in the conflict. The last war broke the psychological barriers that prevented the direct confrontation, making the possibility of a new war in the future.
It may seem difficult to estimate the extent of damage to the Iranian nuclear program. Trump announced that the American and Israeli strikes have completely destroyed the Iranian nuclear facilities, while the Israeli assessments appear more cautious.
Israeli intelligence reports indicate that the strikes have caused significant damage, but they did not finally end the nuclear program. On the other hand, Iran reduces these damages, stressing that its nuclear program is still efficient.
The ceasefire is expected to be paved to resume nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Western powers. However, the idea of Iran abandoning its entire nuclear ambitions seems unrealistic, especially after it tried to portray itself as a victim of this war. The continuation of the nuclear program, and in a limited way, will remain a constant source of tension between Iran and its opponents.
Despite the damage to Iran, whether at the military or economic level, this war may produce a bolder and less committed country to the restrictions that were governing its regional behavior in the past.
Before this war, Iran was exercising restraint in its confrontations with Israel and the United States, for fear of being involved in a direct war. But the recent clashes, which included unprecedented Iranian missile attacks on Israeli cities, removed this psychological threshold.
In the future, Iran may be more willing to respond violently to any provocation, which increases the risk of escalation. Moreover, the war revealed weaknesses in Iranian defenses, which will push Tehran to accelerate its efforts to enhance its military arsenal, including ballistic missiles and drones.
In Israel, a consensus between political and security circles prevails that Iran will remain a strategic threat as long as the current regime in Tehran continues.
Despite the strikes that Iran and its allies received in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and its presence in Syria, Tehran will seek to rebuild its regional network.
In particular, Hezbollah is considered a front defense line for Iran, and its recovery will be a priority for Tehran in the coming years. Iran will also enhance its relations with the Houthis in Yemen and the groups that support it in Iraq, to maintain its regional influence. This strategy reflects Iran’s belief that its regional allies form an advanced shield against direct threats.
The possibility of a new war between Israel and Iran in the future is a great danger to the stability of the Middle East. The last war has already shown that any friction may quickly develop into a comprehensive confrontation, especially with the decrease in the psychological threshold of direct confrontation.
Under an American administration, its steps cannot be fully predicted, the risks will remain at least high until the current Trump state ends. Meanwhile, mutual missile attacks, which caused great losses to both parties, indicate that any future war will be more destructive.
Despite the ceasefire, the conflict will remain tension. Without a comprehensive agreement that addresses basic differences, a time bomb will remain explosive at any time.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.