Ankara- While the world’s attention is directed to the rapid escalation between Israel andIranTürkiye finds itself on the geopolitical seam line, where security concerns intersect with diplomatic accounts and vital economic interests, and Ankara deals with a new reality that warns of reshaping the maps of alliances and alignments in the region.
And stand out Türkiye As one of the most parties concerned with the repercussions of this escalation by virtue of its geographical location adjacent to the “tension foci”, and its association with energy transfer networks and strategic interests in the Arab region and Central Asia.
While trying to maintain an accurate balance between its declared criticism of Israeli policies, and avoid breaking with Iran, Ankara realizes that any slipping towards an open confrontation may directly harm its national security and its internal stability, and confuses its priorities in foreign policy.
Disturbing escalation
The Turkish Foreign Ministry strongly condemned – in a statement – the Israeli attack on Iran, describing it as “a blatant provocation and flagrant violation of international law,” warning that it threatens to drag the region into a wider conflict. She emphasized that Ankara does not want to see more bloodshed in the Middle East, calling on the international community to move urgently to contain escalation and prevent the detonation of a comprehensive regional conflict.
Political analyst Mahmoud Alloush believes that the current military escalation between Israel and Iran not only changes in the nature of the relationship between Ankara and Tehran, but also mixes the papers at the level of the entire region. He described what is going on as a new chapter of the October 7 War, but it is “more dangerous and complicated.”
He told Al -Jazeera Net, that Ankara is anxiously looking at this escalation from multiple angles, given that Iran is a neighboring country, warning that any Israeli or American move aims to bring down the Iranian regime may lead to heavy repercussions on Turkish national security.
According to him, the decline in Iranian influence in some squares of the region – such as Syria – provided opportunities for Ankara to enhance its presence, but at the same time created new challenges, especially with Israel seeking to fill this void and devote itself a pivotal player in the engineering of power balances in the Middle East, which Türkiye considers a strategic concern.
Alloush believes that Türkiye may possess a margin of a diplomatic role in communication between Washington and Tehran to contain the escalation, but this possibility – in his opinion – remains dependent on the intentions of Washington and Tel Aviv:
- If the goal of pressure is to push Iran to the negotiating table according to the American conditions, Ankara may engage in a vital mediation role.
- But if the goal exceeds this towards dismantling the Iranian regime, then Türkiye will be forced to adapt to a new regional scene, carrying with it a mixture of threats and opportunities.
An official neutrality
For his part, political analyst Ali Asmar believes that this escalation places Ankara in front of one of its most complex diplomatic moments, as it moves within a regional minefield that imposes a maximum commitment to balance. And it confirms that it does not start from the positions of concession, but rather from a clear keenness to protect regional stability that has become more fragile than ever.
He explains to Al -Jazeera Net, that Ankara, by virtue of its location and geopolitical position, is governed by playing the role of the mediator, not the opponent, and the act of a responsible rationality, and not a negative neutrality. Despite the strain of its historical relationship with Tehran, especially in the Syrian file, what raises its concern today is “Iran’s attempts to restore the concentration inside Syria with informal tools that feed chaos instead of supporting stability, which Turkey absolutely rejects.”
On the other hand, the researcher considers that the Israeli strikes are nothing but an attempt to dismiss the attention from the continuous aggression on Gaza, stressing that Ankara’s rejection of this approach does not mean a bias to Iran, but rather an explicit rejection of the logic of power that threatens a widespread explosion.
He concludes that Turkey is pursuing a “rational and cautious” foreign policy, which rejects the open war, and calls for a comprehensive political solution in Palestine, while working to establish its position as an independent regional power, a balance between principles and interests without being involved in closed axes or absurd confrontations.
Strategic goals
For his part, the academic and political analyst Mustafa Yatim believes that the Israeli military operation carries clear strategic targets, which can be summarized in three main axes:
- Targeting the great military leaders.
- The destruction of Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
- He paralyzed the defensive and military capabilities of Tehran.
He assures Al Jazeera Net, that this process reflects a clear strategic imbalance, as it shows the extent of Iranian deterrence despite years of confrontation with Israel, which is evident in the continuation of Tel Aviv in carrying out complex assassinations and attacks within the Iranian depth without effective deterrence.
He says that the American position in this escalation involves important connotations. Washington is no longer in the position of able to restrain Israel, but rather stands at the location of the spectator or the silent complicit, as it indicated its recent statements, which were satisfied with confirming the lack of intervention unless the American interests are targeted directly.
Anim goes to consider the Israeli operation as part of a rising path of unilateralism and escape international controls, stressing that Israel is trying to impose a new reality in the region in which it plays the role of the only force capable of interfering in all squares, without being subject to any legal or political accountability, as it was evident in its aggression on Gaza.
He concludes, that the process carries with it a dimension that goes beyond the mere pressure on Iran to negotiate, to touch the idea of changing the same system, in a scene that mixes the balance of power in the region, and threatens a cycle of conflict that is difficult to contain in the absence of active international intervention, especially from Washington.
Economic turmoil
In the context, economic analyst Bilal Baghish believes that the military escalation in the Middle East comes in a moment characterized by the increasing global turmoil, and it was expected that the countries of the region will act with more responsibility to avoid more chaos.
He assures Al -Jazeera Net, that Iran is a pivotal country in energy equations and supply chains between East and West, and therefore any escalation inside Iran will have direct repercussions on major projects such as the initiative “Belt and roadAnd supply security via the “middle path”, in addition to the movement of energy transmission from the Gulf via Hormuz Strait.
In his opinion, this situation will inevitably lead to high energy prices and the increasing demand for “safe havens” economically, and that what happened after the Russian -Ukrainian war will now be repeated in a Middle Eastern version, which will enhance Turkey’s importance as an alternative center of commercial and strategic solutions, and as a safe transit way for resources and energy.
Badish says that Ankara, with its central geographical location and economic and political weight, will emerge as the most important country in managing the next stage, especially in light of the international powers’ search for safe and stable alternatives.
While it is expected that Turkish investments in Central Asia, commercial flows and their associated energy will be exposed to negative pressure on the short term, he believes that the public track will be transformed in favor of Ankara.
And he confirms that this crisis, despite its risks, will contribute to the medium and long term to strengthening the position of Türkiye as a strategic corridor and solution center, and enhances its ability to play a pivotal role in drawing new economic arrangements in the region.