I witnessed Russia A large -scale attack bTraveled aircraft Its strategic bombers targeted a qualitative escalation on the part UkraineAnd despite the losses, Russia seems to be able to restore its power quickly.
US military analyst Brandon and Ocitet – in a report published by the American National Interest magazine – says that while the Western media is proud and celebrates the “goal of victory” in the wake of the sudden and remarkable attack by Ukraine on the fleet of Russian strategic bombers capable of carrying long -term nuclear warheads, it is important to obtain a more accurate assessment of the size of the damage.
So far, most reports – which are often based on Ukrainian sources – have focused on highlighting the actual operational capacity of the long -term bombers fleet in Russia.
Wailert believes that there is no doubt that the strike will leave real and permanent damage, but say that the one who remains the rest of Russia in the field of strategic bombers is still a great danger, as well as owning Kremlin Far -range capabilities of land and sea contribute to completing the elements of its “nuclear triad”.
With regard to the same attack, Ukraine estimates that it has damaged up to 30% of the strategic bombers fleet active in Russia and is able to carry nuclear warheads, while the long -term effects of this strike are still unclear.
Great stock
However, it is noteworthy that Russia still has a large number of similar systems in cold stores since The collapse of the Soviet Union.
Certainly, these weather structures are ancient according to modern standards, but, as is the case with the main fighting tanks “T72” and “T90” has proven Moscow Indeed, its high ability to update the old systems and turn them into effective tools in the fields of modern battles, so why is it assumed that the situation will be different for its strategic bombers present in the warehouses and is not currently used?
It is also noteworthy that the Russian defense industrial base is currently operating at levels of efficiency that no one has witnessed since the height of the Soviet Union in the era cold warAnd if Russia wants to return the stored launchers to service, it will most likely be able to do this in a short period.
Wafert says that NATO must be (NATO)NATO) To realize the reality that he faces regarding Russian capabilities, and if the alliance is adopted without scrutiny everything that the Ukrainian regime says during wartime, it will be vulnerable to committing serious strategic errors.
The sudden attacks by Ukrainian running aircraft targeted a major Russian strategic military bases located in the depth of Siberia focused on “TU95” and “TU22M” bombers mainly, and clearly showing the shores of the attacks and the followers of the presence of a number of launchers are burning on the runways of the two bases.
Compared to the peak of the power of the Soviet Air Force during the Cold War, the Russian operational launcher fleet today is relatively small, and therefore the Ukrainian attacks caused damage, at least in the short term.
Before the Ukrainian attack on Russia, it was believed that the Russians had between 50 to 60 “TU95” aircraft in active service, with additional air structures in reserves or stores, and the “TU95” fleet underwent updates over the years, such as the “TU95 MSM” version.
The oldest models such as “TU95 K” and “TU95M” are likely to be preserved in the stores as a strategic reserve.
Some estimates indicate that Russia may have between 20 to 30 additional “TU95” aircraft in the warehouses, although its suitability for aviation varies from one plane to another.
Before the Ukrainian attack on the first of June, the Russians had about 60 to 70 TIS22 aircraft in active service, and it is believed that Russia has between 50 to 100 additional plane structures of this model in stores.
“Aircraft tombs”
Unconfirmed reports indicate that a large part of these stored aircraft is not valid for flying in their current state.
However, given the efficiency of the Russian industrial industrial base – NATO leaders reluctantly admitted – Moscow will be able to return a large number of these aircraft to a fighting situation during a relatively compressed period of time if needed.
Like the United States, the Russian armed forces maintained what is known as “aircraft cemeteries”, referring to the arenas to store unused aircraft, especially in its internal air bases such as Chipinke and Inglis.
These “cemeteries” include the models that were talked about from the bombers, and they are not in active service, but they are kept in the weather rules as a strategic reserve as a preventive measure, in anticipation of a sudden escalation of the type currently faced by Moscow.
Despite the success of Russia in preparing its defensive industrial base of the conflict between the great powers of the modern era, it suffers from a “bottleneck” in the field of double -use electronics systems.
Simply put, Russia is not good in the manufacture of electronics, especially those required for short -term defense systems that could protect its air bases from the attacks of Ukrainian enlightening.
Moreover, these double -use electronic systems are also necessary to develop combat aircraft components and developed launchers.
Electronic delay
It is striking that this dilemma related to electronics is double -use – which still complicates the heavy and reliable productive capacity of the Russian defense industrial base – is not a new problem for the Kremlin, but rather returns to the Soviet era when the Soviet Union lost the Cold War to a large extent because of its inability to keep up with the United States in this decisive field.
While China, as a global center for advanced manufacturing, was able to learn how to produce such vital systems, Russia is still very late for each of US And China, despite its efficient engineering and scientific base.
However, the Russian defensive industrial base is well prepared for a long -term war of war of the type it is currently fighting against Ukraine.
Wailert says there is no doubt that the double -use electronics crisis will constitute a complicated factor in Russia’s efforts to rehabilitate the fleet of its launchers.
However, its military forces have not been severely damaged, as some commentators supported Ukraine, but rather that the possibility of recovering from this attack in a short period is high.
The basic facts of this conflict are still tending against Ukraine and NATO, Russia is much larger and has a more sophisticated defensive industrial base, and any problems faced by its army in the first weeks of the conflict have been largely overlooked.
As for the blow that targeted the fleet of its launchers – despite its boldness – it does not change these fundamental facts much.
The American military analyst concluded that the negotiating solution remains the best path to end this war. If this does not happen, it is almost certain that Russia will win sooner or later.