While the markets were awaiting the escalation, the Israeli air strikes came on nuclear facilities and military sites in Iran, in the early hours of Friday, to restore the specter of the comprehensive confrontation in the Gulf, and to restore Hormuz Strait – The most dangerous naval corridor in the world- to the fore.
According to a report published by the Financial Times, the Israeli raids resulted in the killing of prominent leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, but they deliberately avoided hitting oil installations, partially contributed to temporarily calming the markets.
The price increased Brent raw 12% to $ 78.5 a barrel, before declining to $ 75 after markets absorb the boundaries of the strike.
However, analysts warned that Iran’s potential response would determine the real trend of markets.
“The market is still relatively calm because the oil infrastructure was not targeted, but if Iran is considering responding, the strait is the weakness that cannot be ignored,” the Financial Times quoted a senior official in a global oil trade company.
Hormuz … a nerve that Iran may cut off its flow
For his part, the Bloomberg report indicated that the Strait Hormuz returned to the forefront of geopolitical concerns after this escalation.
It passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily more than 21 million barrels of crude oil, or about a third of the oil exports transported in the world.
The agency said, “The Iranian leadership has always shouted the choice of closing the strait,” but it has not actually made this step previously.
In this context, Bloomberg reminded Ali Reda Tengseri, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, asserting that Iran “has the ability to disrupt navigation in the strait, but it does not use it currently,” in an implicit indication that this option is still on the table as a deterrent tool.
Careful rival square
Tehran has previously used Hormuz Strait as a pressure tool:
- In April 2024, before carrying out an attack with aircraft on Israel, Iran detained a shipping ship linked to Israel near the strait.
- In 2023, Iran intercepted an oil tanker heading to the United States, in response to the confiscation of an Iranian ship off the coast of Malaysia.
- During the year 2022, Greek tankers detained several months due to the confiscation of Iranian oil in a separate incident.
Bloomberg indicated that these incidents are no exceptions but rather a frequent pattern of using the strait as a negotiating or rivalry tool.
A possible response and an expected rise in oil prices
For her part, Hallima Croft, head of the International commodity strategy department at RBC Bank, in a memorandum carried by the Financial Times, believes that Iran may not completely close the strait, but it may resort to “harassment” tactics of ships, or launching attacks on regional oil infrastructure, which may raise oil prices by an additional $ 20 per barrel.
For his part, Jorge Lyon, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at “Restad Energy”, pointed out that “the sequence of events changed, as Israel beaten this time, it constitutes a new factor that may increase market fluctuations and investor anxiety.”
The region again appears on the edge of the abyss, but this time, the danger not only lies in the direct military escalation, but also in what can happen in a spot that carries in its hollow the fate of the global economy.
“It may not be closed, but just waving his paper is enough to raise energy prices and restore risk maps in the entire world,” the Financial Times concluded that “Hormuz may not be closed, but just waving his paper is enough to raise energy prices and restore risk maps in the entire world.”
Facts about the Strait of Hormuz
A report by Reuters monitors the economic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as follows:
- The strait between Oman and Iran is located and connects the Gulf in the north and the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea in the south.
- It is 33 kilometers at the narrowest point, and the two -kilometer -kilometer entry and exit width does not exceed three kilometers in both directions.
- About a five -year -old world of oil, or nearly 20 million barrels per day of oil, condensate and fuel, passes through the strait.
- Most of the Gulf and Iraq countries use it strongly to export oil and gas towards foreign markets.
- Iran has threatened over the years to close the strait, but it never implemented its threat.
- The Fifth American Fleet stationed in Bahrain is the task of protecting commercial navigation in the region.