The French president is preparing Emmanuel Macron For a race against time, in the remainder of his second term until 2027, in an attempt to achieve an achievement that immortalizes his mark before leaving Elysee Palace.
His priorities topped the fully defensive readiness of France, and granted the location of the driving locomotive European Union In this regard, in anticipation of the escalation of direct threats from Russia in the east, and the attitudes of the Atlantic ally in the White House in the west.
In this context, the dazzling military parade of the Champs -Elysées this year did not hide the escalating wave of anxiety in the republic, especially after Russia referred to France as its first external enemy and the war of statements between the two countries.
France is not ready
It is true that France (the only nuclear force between the European bloc countries) is not theoretically threatened with a direct attack or invasion of its lands, yet the concerns that President Macron expressed and accepted by the Chief of Staff of the French Army, Thierry Burkhard, indicating “many other options” for Russia, including the use of hybrid war tactics, including media misinformation, cyber attacks, and spying.
The matter – at the appreciation of the Elysee man today – is not only related to the largest threat to freedom since 1945, but also rises to the rank of direct threat to the presence of France, the Le Parisien newspaper also spoke the following day of Macron’s speech, quoting sources that it described as well as preparations within Russia to attack countries from NATO (NATO).
France – which presents itself under the mandate of President Macron as a carrier of the European Union’s defense brigade – does not want to wake helpless scenes of the German forces invading the Polish borders in early September 1939 in the neglect of the world, marking the outbreak World War II And by occupying the French territories of the Nazi army later.
A major military source in his testimony to the French newspaper admits the fact that “the potential threat is still 3 or 4 years away, and at the current pace we will not be prepared.”
Double budget .. Is that enough?
To remedy what can be corrected until 2027, Macron announced during his traditional speech to the armed forces an additional spending in the defense sector of 3.5 billion euros in 2026 and another 3 billion euros in 2027, raising the defense budget from 50.5 billion euros in 2025 to 64 billion in 2027, twice the defense budget in 2017.
Among other decisions, a modernization of the military planning law for the period from 2024-2030 in the fall will be presented with a total budget equivalent to 413 billion euros, an increase of 118 billion euros over the previous law, and this is a really huge financial effort, so is this reflected in France’s entry into a war economy?
In fact, the plans presented by the French President to increase defense spending do not include financing heavy weapons purchases or entering a war economy in the literal sense, but the plan is based on “filling weaknesses”, and is mainly summarized in the following points:
- Intensive training to raise the efficiency of soldiers, pilots and naval forces.
- Review the law of reserve soldiers.
- Wide enhancement of ammunition stocks And drones.
- Providing air defense missiles such as “Samb/T” that is seen as more efficient than missiles Patriot American.
- Raise satellite capabilities and satellites.
In addition, the Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastian Lecorno stressed in his interview with the newspaper “La Tribune” the need to work to bridge the technological gap in the field of artificial intelligence.
Unlike these basic points, Macron is preparing to pay a draft law for further integration of the reserve forces and attracting youth to military service, in a similar step of what Britain made a year ago and Sweden in 2022.
Compulsory recruitment
Although France does not seem the only European country that plans to strengthen its ranked army, the second largest army in the European Union and the third within NATO, it is not expected – at the appreciation of experts – the restoration of the military service that has been suspended since 1998 in its compulsory form, but may be based on volunteering.
Commenting on this point in Le Parisien newspaper, clouds of the military historian and associate professor at the Sorbonne University explain, “A generation and a half did not provide or not test it, it is a decisive period in history that started with the fall soviet union Today. “
Another part of the experts is in support of the Sakararias in the call for forced recruitment, and their argument in this is that such a decision “guarantees a reserve of trained men who can be published at home or abroadJ cases nWeb of the strife “.
In the spring of this year, the Ministry of the Armed Forces announced its desire to increase the number of reserve soldiers by twice as much as a decade, so that the number rises from 43 thousand and 794 soldiers (according to the last update at the end of December 2024) to about 105 thousand by 2035, that is, by one reserve soldier for each soldiers in service.
These plans are now dependent on the details of the draft law, especially the budget that will be devoted to it, but the most important question accompanying this package is: How can a pivotal country within the European Union such as France such as great security and military challenges with empty safes, at a time when the government is working to tighten its budget significantly, in an effort to restore the financial balance and provide 40 billion euros in the new budget?
The current situation means that the Francois Bayro government goes directly to the “wall” directly, as the Prime Minister now stands in front of an almost impossible equation, in a very tense political context, as the opposition looks forward to a second attempt to withhold confidence in his government in the fall after the failure of a previous attempt at the beginning of this month.
However, Macron urged the deputies to vote on the budget of 2026 when it was presented at the National Assembly, warning of severe consequences for national security and the readiness of the armed forces.
What are the solutions?
The results of an opinion poll conducted by the Uudoxa-Bacquiphon Institute for Legaro newspaper revealed that 72% of the French expressed their willingness to support an increase in the defense budget, but Satan lies in the details.
At a time when Macron presented a loose program based on “increasing activity and production” to finance the budget, Le Parisien newspaper refers to several options on the Prime Minister’s office, including a “white year” free of social advantages, which is an option that would provide 5 billion euros for the state treasury.
However, this solution was met with severe opposition from the left and spectra from the opposition, and French MP Francois Rovan (supportive to withhold confidence in the government) considered the theses of Bayu as a “black year”, warning of any measures that lack social and tax justice.
It may not be sufficient for the reassurance messages that President Macron sends about excluding new “debts and taxes” in financing “historical effort”, to waste the wave of popular anxiety over the fate of the social welfare state in the coming years, which constitutes an obsession for the majority of the French.
For example, Ann Sophie Alasif, the great economists of the International Network of Accounting, Tax and Consulting Companies (BDO) proposals to respond to the plan announced by Macron:
- The first: Resorting to the markets on the basis of investment expenses so that they are not calculated within the rules of the “Mastrecht” treaty that impose a ceiling for the general deficit in the member states of the European Union does not exceed 3% of the gross domestic product.
- The second: Directing some savings towards French companies by establishing a defense fund that can be managed by the deposit fund, especially after France achieved an unprecedented savings rate of approximately 19% in the first quarter of 2025, and the expert also advises the same context to launch a savings account for financing the French industry, including the health sector that achieves added value, as well as the food industries sector.
The Minister of Economy had already announced in a similar step months ago plans to launch a public fund to finance the arms industry by going to savers, but it is not clear whether this plan is sufficient alone to fill the necessary resources.