22/6/2025–|Last update: 13:16 (Mecca time)
Investors said the American attack is on Iranian nuclear sites At dawn on Sunday, it may lead to an immediate reaction in the global markets when reopening them on Monday morning, with oil prices with it and investors pushed to the assets of safe haven while holding the repercussions of the latest escalation in the conflict over the global economy.
The American President announced Donald Trump About the attack through the Truth Social Communication platform, and the strikes increase from involvement US In the Middle East conflict.
The American intervention was a possibility that investors were taken into account when assessing a set of different possible scenarios in the market.
In the aftermath of the announcement of the attack directly, investors expected that the American intervention will stimulate sales in stocks and perhaps the demand for the dollar and the assets of other safe haven when the trading began, but they also said that the course of the conflict is still shrouded in a lot of ambiguity.
Trump described the attack as “amazing military success” in a speech broadcast on television, and said “”Iranian nuclear facilities Home To enrich uranium It was completely and completely destroyed, “warning against the US military’s bombing of other targets in Iran if it does not agree to peace.
“I think the markets will be concerned at the beginning, and that the oil will start trading on a rise,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment official at Botomac River Capital. “We have no evaluation of the damage and it will take some time,” he added.
“The state of uncertainty will be overwhelmed by the markets, as Americans will be affected everywhere now. This will increase blurring and fluctuations, especially in the oil sector.”
Oil prices
The main concern of the markets will revolve around the potential impact of developments The Middle East On oil prices and thus on inflation. High infection may weaken consumer confidence and reduce the opportunity to reduce interest rates in the short term.
“This adds a new complex level of risks that we will have to take into account and pay attention to … this will definitely have an impact on energy prices and perhaps on inflation as well,” said Jack Applene, chief investment official at Krisete Capital.
Brent crude futures rose up to 18% since June 10 to reach its highest level in approximately 5 months at 79.04 dollars on Thursday, but the “Standard & Poor’s 500” index did not witness a significant change after it decreased at the beginning of Israeli attacks on Iran on June 13.
Before the American attack on Iran today, analysts at Oxford Economics put three scenarios ranging from reducing escalation in the conflict, the full suspension of Iranian production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Foundation said in a note that “each of them has significant impacts on global oil prices.”
She added that in the worst cases, global oil prices will jump to the level of $ 130 a barrel to pay inflation in the United States to nearly 6% by the end of this year.
“Although the shock of prices will inevitably weaken consumer spending due to real income damage, any opportunity to reduce US interest rates this year will be destroyed due to the extent of inflation and fears of subsequent repercussions from Inflation“.
In his comments after the announcement of the American intervention, Jimmy Cox suggested the administrative partner of the Harris Financial Group also the rise of oil prices due to the initial reports. But Cox is likely to be stable within a few days because the attacks may pay Iran To conclude a peace agreement with Israel And the United States.
“With this review of the power and the complete extermination of its nuclear capabilities, they have lost all their influence and are likely to surrender and agree to a peace agreement,” Cox said.
Economists warn that a significant increase in oil prices may harm the global economy, which is already suffering from pressure due to Trump’s customs duties.
Shares
However, history indicates that any decline in stocks may be transient. During the previous prominent events that led to inflamed situations in the Middle East, such as invasion Iraq In 2003 and the attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, stocks fell at first, but they quickly recovered to rise in the following months.
Widbush Cicuritz and Cap I. Pro show showed that the Standard and Poor’s index fell on average 0.3% in the three weeks that followed the start of a conflict, but it climbed 2.3% on average after two months of conflict.
Declaration of the dollar
The escalation in the conflict can have different effects on the dollar, which fell this year amid fears of the diminishing American superiority.
Analysts said that the United States’ involvement in the Iran -Israeli war could initially benefit the dollar thanks to the demand for safe haven.
“Are we witnessing a trend towards a safe haven? This will mean a decrease in returns Bonds The rise of the dollar. “
“It is difficult to imagine that the shares are not affected negatively, and the question is to what extent? The matter will depend on the Iranian reaction and whether the oil prices will rise.”