27/6/2025–|Last update: 10:00 (Mecca time)
The Russian economy is facing expectations that are more dangerous than what is announced, amid a real risk of a comprehensive banking crisis during the next 12 months, according to Russian banker officials.
Russian banks are increasingly concerned about the level of bad debt (which the borrower faces difficulties in paying) in their public budgets, according to Bloomberg agency, officials whose identity has not been published according to their request and documents that were seen.
Alarm
The banks have made the alarm secretly about the number of customers from companies and individuals who fail to pay their loans in light of their suffering from the high interest rates, according to the sources.
Dortly and precedent banker officials described the situation in Russia as dangerous, noting that there is an increasing risk of the spread of debt crisis in the country’s financial sector during the next year if the circumstances did not improve.
According to Bloomberg, the pressure within the banking system raises wider questions about the president’s ability Vladimir Putin To continue the Russian war in Ukraine Which entered its fourth year, especially if the Kiev allies of the Americans and the Europeans decide to target the Russian financial sector with severe sanctions, and it is discussed. European Union Currently imposing new restrictions on more Russian banks.
Ukraine supporters are pressing Donald Trump To impose strict new penalties on Russia After Putin rejected invitations cease-fire In the war to allow peace talks, and so far, the US President has refrained from taking any measures.
Sources said that official numbers may hide the true size of the debt problem, as borrowers postpone the payment of their installments, which means that while the general data related to delay in payment does not indicate until now a serious problem, the reality is that many other loans were not paid as planned, according to an internal memorandum from one of the major banks seen by Bloomberg.
Bad debt
Bloomberg quoted sources familiar with the internal assessments, as saying that the banks estimated their poor debts, and that they take steps to manage the increasing risks that may lead to the emergence of early signs of a credit crisis, and one of the estimates showed that the corporate loan portfolio presented by Russian banks in the first two months of 2025 decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles (19 billion dollars) before To settle.
Tensions between senior Putin officials on economic risks appeared during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week.
During it, the Minister of Economy Maxim Reichnikov said during a discussion episode that I gathered and the Bank of Russia (Central), Elvira Napoena, said that the economy is going through a necessary slowdown, “We are about to slip into stagnation.”
Putin explained his position in a speech the next day. He said: “Some specialists and experts refer to the risks of stagnation. This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstance.”
According to Bloomberg, it is certain that years of unprecedented penalties imposed US And its allies in The Group of Seven Countries Since Putin ordered the invasion of Russia in 2022, it has not yet succeeded in paralyzing the Russian economy, as the government has expanded it tremendously on defense industries and supporting companies affected by restrictions.
Russian banks recorded record profits of 3.8 trillion rubles (48.34 billion dollars) in 2024, bypassing the result of the previous year by 20%, according to data Central Bank.
Recruitment pressures
However, the army’s recruitment exacerbated the problem of employment, and contributed to raising the wages that strengthened the income of many Russians, but it was also fueled Inflation The accelerator to an annual peak exceeded 10%. “
The Bank of Russia responded by raising interest rate The main to a standard level of 21% in October, and Napolina reduced interest rate The main is cautious for the first time in nearly 3 years to 20% this month, after a series of complaints from officials and companies that the costs of punitive debt hinder growth and threaten the bankruptcy of companies, and while the economy grew by 4.5% last year, the annual growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the data of the Federal Statistics Authority.
The problems of the so -called two tracks in Russia accumulate, as the military industrial complex benefits from the huge government spending on the war, while many private sector companies suffer from slowing demand, high costs and low export prices.
There is increasing pressure on the banking sector is less documented, according to Bloomberg, after it has given soft loans to help finance a large part of the war effort of the Kremlin, and faces the burden of its recovery.
The construction and industry sectors witnessed a remarkable slowdown, and some indications have even emerged that the military side of the Russian economy began to stagnate, according to Bloomberg from sources and documents.
There were general indications of concern about bad debt levels.
Vulnerability
A report by the Central Bank in May warned of “the weaknesses of the financial sector”, including “credit risks and the risk of focusing on corporate lending”, as well as “the deterioration of loan performance” in consumer lending.
The report stated that about 13 of the 78 largest companies in Russia were unable to pay their debts, which is twice the number registered in the previous year.
However, the organizational authority confirmed that “the banking sector is still standing in general”, while the percentage of troubled loans for the retail sector was “much lower” than it was in the 2014-2016 period, when Russia was first exposed to sanctions because of Ukraine after the inclusion of Putin. For the semi -island of Crimea.
And the agency warned Credit rating Russian “Accra” in a report in May of “the deterioration of the quality of loan debt”, stated that about 20% of the total capital of the banking sector is owned by borrowers at the risk of their credit worth dramatically due to high interest rates.
Another study, published in the same month by the center of total economic analysis and short -term prediction, a close research center related to Kremlin officials, found a “medium possibility” of a comprehensive banking crisis by April 2026.
The study warned that the risk may rise if the issuance of new loans and another increasing in poor loans continues.