The first researcher at the Al -Jazeera Center for Studies, Dr. Mekki, said that the war between Iran andIsrael It has become a dangerous turning point in the region, amid indications of its extent and direct threat to the lives of people and the stability of the countries of the region, stressing that its development may mean the entry of major international parties and the outbreak of a comprehensive regional confrontation.
Makki, in his speech during a special coverage on the Al -Jazeera screen, explained that the unprecedented Iranian response, which targeted the Israeli depth with dozens of missiles, showed the shift of confrontation from just limited operations to what appears to be the beginning of an actual war, noting that the immediate repercussions of this conflict began to appear in the closure of the atmosphere of 5 countries and disrupt economic activity.
It was Iran It has announced the implementation of a massive attack against Israeli targets, confirming that it fired hundreds of missiles, some of which were submarines for the first time, and targeted some military headquarters and leadership centers, including the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv, while the 13th channel talked about unprecedented destruction in the city.
Makki added that the breadth of the bombing may include cities and capitals in the region, and that the possibility of the United States entry into the confrontation line exists, despite its attempts to reserve direct participation. If this is achieved, its bases and interests in the region will be subject to targeting, whether from Iran itself or from its regional allies.
Makki pointed out that the Arab Gulf constitutes a vital oil artery for the world, and that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – which is expected if the escalation continues – may deprive global markets of about 60% of supplies, as well as the possibility of oil facilities and energy facilities to strike directly, threatening to explode a global economic crisis.
Strategic effects
Makki did not lose sight of the long -term strategic effects of the war, warning that the Israeli goal is no longer limited to limiting Iranian capabilities, but rather extends to trying to overthrow the regime in TehranAnd he considered that this trend is dangerous, because it will open the door to the scenarios of internal conflict and possible collapses, in the event that Israel can achieve this goal with Western support.
The researcher stopped at the statements of Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, in which he said that Tehran exceeded the red line by targeting civilians, considering that these statements are an explicit prelude to hitting Iranian economic facilities, especially ports and oil production sites, which threatens a serious deterioration in the nature of the confrontation.
In his reference to the horizons of this war, Makki said that the capabilities of the two parties to withstand and escalate make it difficult to predict a close end to the conflict, likely to continue operations unless international and regional pressure is practiced decisive on both parties. He stressed that Iran is seeking to achieve a clear and influential deterrence, as the mere launch of the missiles is not sufficient in its accounts in front of its people and the world.
He believed that the battle between Iran and Israel is not only understood from the standpoint of response and deterrence, but it is a struggle for the future of the regional role, as Israel seeks to devote its existence as a dominant power that is unacceptable, and if it succeeds in achieving a direct victory over Iran – with Western support – it will become the upper hand in the region, which is dangerous in his opinion.
He considered that Israel’s failure to curb its ambitions in the region, and its possession of the ability to use force without controls, will expose other countries in the region to a fate similar to what is intended for Iran, in light of an Israeli political discourse that some countries are considered to be eaten and displaced entities.
He pointed out that Tehran may be forced to be temporarily, especially with the pressures of the Syrian and Lebanese arena, but these successive strikes will push it to respond again before stopping, in order to preserve its prestige, stressing that the statements of Abbas Araqji – refusing to call for self -control – reflect the insistence on responding strongly before any calm.
In the midst of these developments, Makki referred to the statement issued by the Qatari Emiri Diwan on the contact of the Emir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani by the American President Donald TrumpTo discuss the efforts to reduce the escalation, saying that this diplomatic move is very important, and it must be supported by similar moves from the leaders of the countries of the region, especially Saudi Arabia, who said that its crown prince met the American president in the past days.
The area will not bear
He added that the Gulf states have always expressed their rejection of any war in the region, and Washington informed this since the start of the escalation, warning that the continuation of the war will not be in the interest of any party, and that the entire region is not prepared to bear a major war, especially after the effects of the aggression on Gaza that angered the Arab street.
He stressed that Iran is a large and pivotal country and has a great national and ethnic pride, and it has real capabilities for the confrontation, stressing that going to the end in this war is not excluded by Tehran, in light of what it considers a necessity to deter and preserve the sovereign dignity in front of the interior and abroad.
These statements come at a time when Iran announced the launch of the “overwhelming response” to Israel, after Iranian facilities were subjected to a series of attacks, killing a number of its military leaders and a group of its nuclear experts, which prompted it to respond through hundreds of ballistic missiles, some of which dropped an Israeli fighter and hit sensitive sites in Tel Aviv.
While Israel continues to fly its aircraft and bomb targets in the Iranian depth, the media revealed that the Israeli Ministry of Defense building in Al -Kerha was severely damaged, at a time when the state of emergency is still imposed on the entire Israeli lands, which increases the regional scene complicated and threatens a large -scale explosion.
However, according to Makki’s estimates, the ability of the actors to influence this path seems limited unless they are driven by a firm political will from Washington and its allies, stressing that the continuation of the situation as it is means that we are facing a new chapter of regional conflict, more wide and dangerous than everything that the region witnessed during the past years.