Occupied Jerusalem- In Israeli political and military circles, fears of the strategic threat that have become missing missiles Ansar Allah group And its running aircraft coming from Yemen.
After months of escalation, it became clear that the ongoing attacks represented a complex challenge for Israeli national security, and revealing worrying gaps in the ability of deterrence and air defense, despite the heavy American support and air strikes carried out by the Israelis against Houthi targets.
According to a report by the newspaper “Haaretz”, the Israeli security establishment believes that the most realistic option to stop these attacks is to reach an agreement to stop the fighting in Gaza Strip.
Israeli anxiety
This reading, according to military and political analysts in Israel, reflects the extent of the anxiety caused by the Houthi rockets and aircraft, especially after the failure of the defense systems to intercept dozens of projectiles that fell deep into the Israeli home front.
The attacks were already killed and wounded, as happened in July 2024, when an Israeli was killed in an attack with a plane running on Tel Aviv, and caused damage to the infrastructure and the flight, as happened last May, when a ballistic missile fell near Ben Gurion Airport It causes a wide cancellation wave for flights.
In front of this growing threat, decision -makers in Tel Aviv are discussing several scenarios, including the continuation of the policy of military attrition against the Yemeni group through air strikes, or an attempt to reach political understandings with Iran, or even encourage the internationally recognized Yemeni government to move against the group, which are options that seem complicated and unclear.
But according to Israeli sources, the most likely scenario is to reach an agreement with the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) Or even with Tehran, directly or indirectly, which explicitly or implicitly included a ceasefire from Yemen, according to the newspaper “Haaretz”.
Security officials in Tel Aviv acknowledge the difficulty of betting on a sustainable solution that is limited to ending the war in Gaza, warning that the Houthis may resume their attacks on any upcoming escalation tour, both in West Bank Or Gaza or due to tensions in the Al -Aqsa Mosque.
The estimates of the Israeli security services believe that any long -term solution may require broader understandings with Iran in the context of Washington’s dialogue efforts, to reduce regional tensions and contain multiple fronts that threaten Israeli security at the same time.
Big burdens
The writer Mordechai Ish-Shalom, a graduate of the “National Security College”, explains in his article on the website “Zaman Yisrael”, that Tel Aviv is facing difficulty in dealing with the threat of the group’s missiles, unlike the United States that can hit Yemen and then withdraw, declaring “victory”.
He explained that despite the very expensive Israeli air strikes, the Houthis continue to launch rockets daily, which imposes large economic and psychological burdens on the home front, which enhances concern that they are a strategic threat to Israeli national security.
To face strategic risks, Ish-Shalom offers two main options for Israel:
- The first: The political solution to reach an agreement that stops fighting in Gaza in exchange for the Yemeni group to stop the firing of the missiles. But this solution is fragile, because the group may resume attacks at any future escalation, “especially in light of Iranian influence.”
- The second: the military solution to “eliminate the leadership of the group”, through a precise air strike or a special commando operation, which requires accurate intelligence information.
Ish-Shalom criticized the Israeli security establishment’s delay in preparing for this threat from Yemen, recalling that the Houthis have proven their capabilities early, such as the attacks on Saudi Energy Company Aramco And on shipping ships in Red Sea.
He also suggested solutions to overcome the long distance to Yemen, such as using bases in Africa or submarines, and “financing Somali pirates to implement assassinations.”
In his belief, Israel needs a new and bold strategic thinking, rather than relying on expensive and decisive air strikes or fragile agreements that may collapse easily.
Intelligence failure
The same reading was reviewed by the military analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz”, Amos Harel, who wrote that the repetition of missile attacks from Yemen showed the limits of the Israeli deterrence capacity, despite the government’s attempts to photograph the situation as an imminent victory.
According to Harel, despite what he considered the success of the defensive system “Hions” in the interception of most of the missiles, the Israeli army is facing a new war of attrition that indirectly managed from Iran. He explained that the occupation army discusses the independence of the Ansar Allah group from Tehran, especially with the stopping of attacks from Lebanon and Iraq and the retreat of fighting in Gaza, to remain the main threat.
He said that the launch of one missile every two days from Yemen is sufficient to keep the Israeli home front under pressure, while the Israeli response requires complex air operations, 1,800 km away.
Under the title “A monster under the nose: Israel ignored the Houthi threat in a timely manner and missed opportunities to address it,” Williar Choufal, a correspondent of military and security affairs in the newspaper “Israel Hume”, wrote an article in which an Israeli intelligence failure dealt with accumulated in dealing with the Yemeni group.
She explained that the Israeli security establishment for many years considered Yemen a “secondary square”, and was busy with other threats such as Iran, andHezbollah Hamas, while warnings were ignored that the Houthis might direct their weapons towards Israel.
She pointed out that despite the availability of intelligence information about their ability to launch long -range missiles, they were not allocated to them, but rather they were mentioned in the evaluations in a transient. She stressed the difficulty of hitting them militarily from the air, due to the long distance from Israel, and their ability to stay in remote and isolated areas.
Shufal indicated that some see that they are like Hamas and Hezbollah, they can only be defeated through a wild operation, which is an already uncompromising choice.
“As for the attacking of Iran, which funds and arms the Yemeni group, it will not necessarily be a decisive solution, because the group maintains a large margin of independence.”
She concluded by saying that this threat, which is considered a long -term secondary, is now an effective and dangerous front, which imposes on Israel a long -term depletion and requires a comprehensive review of its security strategy.