7/7/2025–|Last update: 19:59 (Mecca time)
Syria has been witnessing a moment of milestone in its political and economic history since the overthrow of a regime Bashar al -Assad Late 2024, the new government inherited the leadership of the president Ahmed Al -Shara An exhausted economy, semi -destructive infrastructure and a tired society due to more than 13 years of war.
The current leadership is trying to redefine the identity of the Syrian economy, transmitted from the Bureaurada Central Model to the free market economy, in an attempt to save the country from complete collapse and engage again in the global financial and economic system.
The Al -Jazeera Center for Studies published an analytical paper entitled “The Syrian economy … the challenges of the transformation towards the market system and confront the legacy of the previous regime“The researcher Abdel -Azim Al -Maghrib discussed the economic reality of Syria in light of the current political circumstances, and discussed the vision of the new rule of the country and the challenges it faces, in addition to the fate that awaits Damascus in light of the volatile regional and international geopolitical conditions.
A fragile economy and heavy legacy
The Syrian economy suffers from great distortions in its structure and sectors, and it constitutes a challenge for the Syrian government, the most important of which are:
The Syrian government inherited a collapsed political system after Bashar al -Assad escaped from the country to Russia, in addition to the existence of demands for administrative decentralization by the so -called Syrian Democratic Forces It is located east of the Euphrates, and some Druze factions in the south of the country.
The new Syrian administration has launched the National Dialogue Conference, and one of the most important transformations that Syria is witnessing at this stage is the adoption of the open market model, as the private sector plays a pivotal role, and will lead to Syria’s openness towards regional and global countries more and enhances its integration with the global economy.
- Review economic indicators:
The study indicates that the situation of the Syrian economy is currently characterized by “structural fragility”, as the effects of the war still dominate the various aspects of life, as fighting and destruction led to a huge decline in domestic product.
The country suffers from catastrophic poverty rates, as 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, and extreme poverty doubled to 66%, while unemployment rates are 25%, about 75% of citizens depend on humanitarian aid, and the national currency has decreased to unprecedented levels, which lost its role in local trading in favor of the dollar.
The Syrian leadership has focused its efforts since the first day towards obtaining political legitimacy, lifting sanctions, integrating Syria into the global system, and reactivating the commercial sector, and this will be reflected in gradually improving the total indicators.
- Decreased vital production sectors:
During the war years, the main productive sectors were exposed to widespread destruction, and led to the displacement of expert workforce, the destruction of industrial facilities and the burning of agricultural lands, and capital was subjected to pressure, blackmail and other constraints.
After the fall of the regime, these sectors began seeking to secure the minimum of their main needs that help them to continue only.
In terms of government procedures, it started to work to reform the agricultural and industrial sector, amid a local and Arab desire to pump investments in these two sectors by providing tax facilities and exemptions and trying to secure the energy necessary to operate the two sectors.
- Infrastructure and reconstruction:
International estimates indicate that the cost of reconstruction is estimated at 400 billion dollars. Infrastructure such as electricity, water and roads needs to be prepared and repaired, and even creating new structures for it.
It seems that the Syrian government is betting on a mixture of Gulf and international financing as a plan similar to the Marshall project for the reconstruction of the country, and its efforts focus on attracting major investment projects.
- Selected commercial sector:
The supply, transportation lines, supply and supply chains were greatly affected during the war in Syria due to the military activity that took place and divisions in military and political geography within the country and the absence of controlled and organized laws for commercial action, as well as imposing sanctions.
The Syrian government is working to control the informal economy, both at the level of fighting corruption, smuggling, and others.
The living life of Syrian citizens is still largely dependent on external transfers, humanitarian aid and some free business in light of the existence of inflation and high unemployment, especially since the new administration announced the shift towards the free market economy, while the economy until a very recent era depended on the government centrally.
The transitional government has made one of its most important priorities fighting corruption and rebuilding state institutions on the basis of accountability, transparency and focusing on protecting citizens and enhancing stability, but achieving results in the level of these priorities as well as reflecting on the daily lives of citizens needs a path that is not short.
- Loss of confidence in the local currency and the banking sector:
The value of the Syrian pound fell against the dollar during the war years, and the dollar was adopted instead of the lira, as a result of irrational monetary policies that led to the end of the reserves of foreign currencies, the printing of huge quantities of the Syrian pound, and the absence of confidence in the banking system, as well as the sanctions imposed on banks, especially the central bank.
The new government worked to reactivate the financial and critical sector and pump confidence in it, so the Damascus Stock Exchange resumed trading after 6 months of stopping, indicating that the Syrian economy began to recover, and that Syria has turned from a central economy run by the public sector and the shadow economy to an economy based on economic freedom.
Future prospects .. conditional opportunities successfully reform
The study believes that the opportunity today is available for Syria to achieve a comprehensive economic renaissance during the next ten years, provided that reforms and the stability of the political and security environment continue, as the expected growth in the agricultural and industrial sectors may contribute to reducing unemployment and achieving food security, and that opening supply chains and transport lines will gradually enhance internal and external trade.
In the event that the Gulf and Turkish investments continue and the transparency and confidence are available to donors, Syria may be able to overcome the “relief stage” and move to the stage of “sustainable development”.
The government expects a gradual decrease in inflation and unemployment rates within 5 years, in conjunction with the improvement of the national currency and the decrease in dependence on the dollar.
Big test
The study concludes that the future of the Syrian economy depends mainly on the government’s ability to create a stable political environment, complete the path of transitional justice, control internal security, and build efficient and transparent institutions.
The redefinition of the identity of the Syrian economy – as an open society based on the market economy – remains the seriousness of the new rule in fighting corruption, building confidence, and active interaction with the international community.
Although the road is still long, the ongoing transformations – politically and economically – indicate a decisive moment in the history of Syria, and an opportunity to rebuild the country on new foundations, perhaps the deepest since independence.