After announcing the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the US President was published Donald Trump Several publications and statements praised the Prime Minister of the Israeli government Benjamin Netanyahu (Required For the International Criminal CourtHe called for a presidential pardon for it in the corruption cases that he was tried in Israeli courts for several years.
The Israeli President responded Isaac Herzog By saying that it is appropriate to conclude the Netanyahu trial at this time with an agreement on a guilt admission deal, and with regard to amnesty, he explained that the process can only begin by submitting an amnesty request on behalf of Netanyahu.
Secret meeting
Channel 12 revealed last Thursday that there were secret talks between the public prosecutor and the defending team of Netanyahu to reach a prosecution deal by the retired Supreme Court, Aaron Barak.
The channel added that last month a secret meeting was held at the house of retired judge Barack in Tel Aviv, and the meeting was attended by the defending team for Netanyahu, and this meeting was before the start of the counter -interrogation that aims to reveal the contradictions or gaps in the statements of the accused Netanyahu.
Barak emphasized that in all cases, Netanyahu’s retirement for politics will be necessary, while his lawyer, Amin Haddad, said that his client has basic conditions, which is that there is no retirement from political life or the characteristic of shame because of the charges, which is a characteristic that will prevent Netanyahu from running for elections or managing any government position.
The Hebrew Kan 11 channel quoted a senior negotiation official that Trump’s statements were not published in vain, that it is part of a major step aimed at ending the Netanyahu trial, in addition to steps related to the war on Gaza and regional issues of great importance.
Bin Esbat, the writer in Maariv newspaper, revealed that Trump’s statements regarding Netanyahu’s trial were previously coordinated between them, as the idea was born during Netanyahu’s first visit to Washington, and Trump, according to the sources, was ready to talk about the trial. As for Netanyahu, it seems that he preferred to wait, he had a plan because he knew that the Iranian issue was approaching, and it preferred that all this happen in a moment at the height of events.
Bin Kasset added: Now this came out to the public, with great strength, as part of an Israeli -American operation, with the participation of the three presidents, Trump, Herzog and Honan Brak, the aim of the wide process is a new regional settlement in the Middle East, and the abolition of the counter -investigation of Benjamin Netanyahu.
He explained that Netanyahu has become ready for the conversation of guilt by recognizing mitigating charges, and is judged by light penalties without arrest, but he rejects the stigma that forces him to leave political life, and he is ready to retire after the end of his current term.
War of attrition spoils euphoria
In light of the atmosphere that controls the public space in Israel, Netanyahu still lives and his supporters Right -wing A state of unprecedented euphoria after the war on Iran.
Opinion polls, which were conducted by the right -wing extremist channel, the official A 24 News channel, the 12th channel, and the site and the Maariv newspaper, during the past Thursday and Friday indicate a significant rise in Netanyahu’s personal popularity, and an increase in the power Likud As a party, with the “Right -up Camp supported by Netanyahu” on its weakness.
In an article published by Channel 12, National Security expert, Colonel Cuban Marum, considered that the achievements are in a confrontation Iranian nuclear program Ballisti missiles enable the political leadership and the prime minister to decide to end the war in the Gaza Strip strongly.
He said that the Gaza war is increasingly heading towards a war of attrition, which does not contribute to the liberation of the hostages, but rather exposes them to danger and restricts the ability Israeli army On fighting, Hamas will not destroy, believing that ending the war in Gaza “will be a strategic lever for the army’s achievements.”
On the other hand, a member describes Knesset The former and the lecturer in Israeli studies, Jamal Zahalka, what Israel has achieved in the war on Iran as “tactical successes, but it failed strategically.”
He added that the feeling of euphoria comes from the image that is being marketed from reality, considering that a part of what we see from the euphoria is “artificial joy”, and another part resulting from the ratification of Netanyahu’s propaganda and Trump.
He pointed out that the most important causes of euphoria among Netanyahu supporters and the extreme right is to betting that the war on Iran will raise the popularity of Netanyahu and his ruling coalition, and makes him restore his position and his ability to win in the upcoming elections.
For his part, the specialist in the Israeli affairs, Firas Yaghi, believes that despite the momentum that Netanyahu obtained because of his wars, especially the aggression against Iran, “he does not qualify him to establish a government in early elections, so Netanyahu wants to use internal support to him to cause internal pressure to reach a claim deal with him.”
In his speech to Al -Jazeera Net, he added that the US administration believes that the interest of Israel in the strategic dimension ends the war in Gaza. The current government because of its coalition formula is unable to end this war, which will affect the achievements of Israel in the region.
End of the Gaza war
Many commentators linked the end of the Gaza war to a ceasefire with Iran, in addition to the hint that the elections will be the way for Netanyahu to harvest his achievements from the Iran war.
According to the political analyst of Channel 12, Layeel, Netanyahu is aware of the impossibility of holding early elections as long as the fighting continues in the Gaza Strip, and he previously argued by the impossibility of holding elections during the war, it is impossible to promote a “new Middle East” vision when every morning begins with a declaration “allowed to publish loud” (i.e. the announcement of the army’s death in Gaza Strip).
Professor Eli Voda, lecturer in the Department of Islamic and Middle East Studies at the Hebrew University, considered in an article published by Channel 12 last Wednesday that the Gaza Strip war, which is now marginalized, is still pivotal in Israel’s position in the region and the position of members of the alliance on it.
He added that if October 7, 2023, eventually led to a war on Iran, this should lead to the closure of the circle by “removing the effects of the attack of the seventh of October”, considering that changing Israel’s relationship with regional countries will not be achieved until after the end of wars in all sectors, and reaching a political solution that includes not only the Iranian file, but also the Gaza file as part of a more comprehensive solution to the Palestinian file.
Zahalka believes that one of the scenarios that Netanyahu drew, begins to choose a suitable date for ending the war on Gaza, liberating all prisoners, and declaring victory and going to early elections, “This scenario is still standing, and its implementation needs to be created in which he puts credibility to declare victory.”
It is likely that this situation is a wide normalization movement that sweeps and ends the Gaza war, and there remains the possibility that Netanyahu accept an American proposal to end the war with balanced American gifts, allowing Netanyahu to declare victory.
He added that the most feared by Netanyahu is to have to stop the war without having sufficient credibility to declare victory, so Netanyahu’s accounts for the early elections are not related to ending the war, but by declaring victory, in the hope of winning the elections. But if he is forced to end the war without the ability to claim victory, it will not go to early elections.
On the other hand, the specialist in the Israeli affairs, Firas Yaghi, links the end of the war on the Gaza Strip with the statements of President Trump in which Israeli President Herzog called for issuing an amnesty for Netanyahu, who will not go to a comprehensive deal, including ending the war on Gaza, without ensuring that the corruption on which he is being tried, then he will venture and go to end the war in a comprehensive deal and dismantle his government and go to early elections.
He added, “Ending the war is linked to the ability of the US President to pressure the Israeli interior to obtain a presidential pardon for Netanyahu, to drop the charges, or to reach a deal to acknowledge a guilt that includes Netanyahu’s retirement from politics, and this option is excluded by Netanyahu, who wants to immortalize his legacy that he struck Iran, and believes that he deserves to be exempted from the charges he is being tried.”
Election
In exchange for talking about a deal of guilt to exclude Netanyahu from political life after his current term, the Israeli media transmits statements and analyzes of commentators and analysts that Netanyahu re -markets himself again as a victor and a strong after the failure of the seventh of October, and talking about early elections has become the main concern of the Israeli media.
The advisor in strategic communications, Mimi Var, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth the day before yesterday, Friday, that Netanyahu is already an electoral situation, and we saw his celebrations of victory in the sites of raids, press conferences and the statements he made during successes.
According to the political analyst of Channel 12, Layeel Dafna, opinions are divided between Netanyahu’s footnote, as some see that seeking quick elections is worthy of attention, while Iran’s achievements are still vague, and there are more achievements on the horizon, and others believe that giving up a full year in power with a stable coalition is a form of madness, especially with the lack of resolution of the elections.
As for the victory in the elections and the formation of the government after the upcoming elections, it is the strength of the right -wing camp for Netanyahu in exchange for its competitors, which is that the number of members of the Knesset of the Government Coalition reaches 68 members out of 120, and this is a fixed and coherent majority, while in the polls, the strength of all parties that make up the Netanyahu coalition is about 50 members.
Former Knesset member Jamal Zahalka believes that even after the war on Iran, and if there is an increase in the strength of the Likud party, it comes at the expense of the rest of the parties in the Netanyahu camp and not at the expense of the opposition, and the recent polls do not encourage Netanyahu to early the date of the elections because this is an adventure that may cost him to lose power.
He added that the fear of losing the elections is pushing Netanyahu to continue the war on Gaza, “Perhaps he will achieve gains that he can market to the Israeli street and help him win the elections.”
The specialist, Yaghi, expected that the early elections were held in March 2026 if internal consensus is reached to end the war on Gaza, while the official elections date is October 2026, “This is if Netanyahu arrives at a conviction that the early elections will be in his favor, but if he does not reach a conviction, how will he venture with early elections and drop his stable government?”.
He added that in the event that Netanyahu goes to early elections, the Likud will not be able to obtain the number of seats that help him to form a government like the current government from the extreme right, which disrupts Trump’s projects in the region, foremost of which is the expansion of agreements. Normalization.
Future expectations
Opinion polls published this week that followed the aggression against Iran is not positive for Netanyahu, according to Dafna Layeel, which adds, “In fact, Netanyahu is relatively calm, he has more papers in his diplomatic and politically.” She said that he will continue to seek to form a mid -right security list that damages and joins his opponent after the elections, and of course Smotic will remain in the square, and Netanyahu has another profitable paper led by Donald Trump.
For his part, Zahalka believes that the opposition includes a very strong right -wing bloc, but its leaders refuse to enter into a coalition with Netanyahu, so he seeks to form a new right -wing list that is ready to alliance with him and withdraw voices from the opposition.
Netanyahu is also working to ensure the success of all right -wing lists, including the religious Zionist Party, which heads it in Salafel Smotrich. In contrast, the Likud party began a legal and political campaign to write off Arab parties and prevent them from participating in the elections, hoping to weaken the Arab bloc and thus increase Netanyahu’s ability to form a government.
Yaghi believes that Netanyahu will go to a partial deal with Gaza in agreement with the American President until the internal situation of Netanyahu’s exemption from the charges is ripened, or to hold a contempt for guilt and go to early elections, after reaching a two -month partial deal that will be extended for two additional months, i.e. the end of next October, then the war will be ended in the Gaza Strip.
After that – Yaghi adds – the next day will be discussed in Gaza and the shape of the party that will manage the Strip, which will lead to the dismantling of the Netanyahu government, despite its security from the opposition to pass the comprehensive deal.