The Vietnamese government has officially canceled the policy that has long been restricted by families with only two children, in an effort to stop the population deterioration associated with rapid aging.
According to the official news agency, the Vietnamese Parliament (the National Assembly) agreed to a legislative amendment that will drop the restrictions imposed on the number of children allowed to have, to end the policy of control of the birth control of it since 1988.
The data indicates that the fertility rate in Vietnam has witnessed a regular decline in recent years, after 2.11 children per woman in 2021 (that is, barely higher than the population replacement rate) decreased to 2.01 in 2022, then to 1.96 in 2023, to reach only 1.91 in 2024.
This decline puts Vietnam on the list of Asian countries facing a population crisis, along with South Korea, Japan and Singapore, but it differs from it as a developing country, which makes economic and demographic challenges more complicated.
“We are sometimes thinking about having a second child so that our son is not alone, but financial and temporal pressures make this a very difficult option,” says Ngwin Thu Lynh – a 37 -year -old marketing director of Hanoi.
From the policy of population growth to the aging crisis
The policy of the two children dates back to 1988 when the Vietnamese government sought to reduce the number of births in order to reduce the burden on families and enhance the participation of women in the labor market.
With the “Golden Population Phase” since 2007 – that is, when the number of workers exceeds the number of children and the elderly – Vietnam sought to invest this stage, which is expected to end in 2039.
Despite the expectations of the peak of the population capable of working in 2042, estimates show that the population may begin to actually decline by 2054, which may negatively affect economic growth in light of increasing social welfare expenses for the elderly.
My regional fertility and incentives for childbearing
The decline in fertility rates is not distributed equally between the regions.
To remedy this, the local authorities launched last December a motivational program that gives financial bonuses up to $ 120 for women who have two children before the age of 35.
Gender imbalance
Vietnam also faces another demographic problem represented in a firm social preference for males, which led to high rates of selective abortion according to sex, so doctors are legally prevented from detecting the gender of the fetus, and abortion is based on the basis of type illegal.
In an attempt to deter these practices, the Ministry of Health suggested doubling the fine imposed on choosing the type of fetus to 3 times, to reach 3800 dollars.
The Vietnamese experience is similar in its roots what China, which imposed the policy of one child in 1979, then gradually eased, has gradually eased, to allow 3 children since 2021.
However, despite these facilities, birth rates did not rise as expected, but continued to decline, which deepened fears of serious economic consequences.