Despite the passage of more than 6 months since the fall of the ousted president’s regime Bashar al -AssadAnd form a new government led by the president Ahmed Al -SharaTunisia continues its official silence towards this detailed political transformation, at a time when most Arab countries were quick to declare clear positions, which varied between welcoming caution, support and re -normalizing relations.
With the exception of the statement issued by the Tunisian Foreign Ministry on the second day of the fall of the regime, in which it emphasized the importance of the unity of Syria, the integrity of its lands and respect for the will of its people, Tunisia has not yet shown any direct political interaction with the fundamental change that Syria witnessed, there is no official statement, nor congratulations, nor indications of the intention of restoring diplomatic relations.
In light of this, this report raises a pivotal question: Why does Tunisia not interact with the new political change in Syria? Does this absence reflect a calculated diplomatic approach based on patience and not rushing? Or is it a reflection of the state of internal preoccupation that left the Syrian file outside the priorities of foreign policy?
Tunisia and the Assad regime before the fall
While the Tunisian silence comes towards political change in Syria, the newborn or diplomatic wait, according to government supporters, reflects, according to observers and critics of Tunisian foreign policy, as an extension of a previous political alliance between the president’s regime Qais Saeed And the ousted Syrian regime, as relations between the two parties witnessed a remarkable convergence in recent years, which reached its climax with a direct meeting of Sa`id in Bashar al -Assad on the sidelines of the Arab Summit in Jeddah in 2023.
Tunisia was one of the first countries to close its embassy in Damascus in early 2012, but the situation changed with Saeed’s uniqueness in the ruling in the summer of 2021, as Tunisia was quick to extend its hand to the former Syrian regime in an effort to dismantle his isolation, and in the year 2022, Saeed met the Assad Foreign Minister Faisal Al -Miqdad, on the sidelines of their visit to Algeria on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of independence, and asked him to transfer his greetings to Bashar al -Assad.
A year after this meeting, Qais Saeed decided to raise the level of diplomatic representation in Syria and reopen the Tunisian embassy in Damascus, reiterating his country’s standing alongside Damascus in the face of those who describe them as “the forces of darkness and those seeking to divide this Arab country.”
The Tunisian position supporting the ousted Assad regime continued to battle days.Determine the aggression“President Saeed adopted the regime’s account, and expressed his strong condemnation of what he considered” the terrorist attacks that targeted northern Syria, “declaring his solidarity with the Syrian regime, calling on the international group to” support this brotherly country, in order to maintain its sovereignty, the security, stability, and territorial integrity. “
And not a day on the fall of Assad, on December 8, 2024, until Tunisia amended its official position 180 degrees through a statement issued by its external, expressing “its respect for the Syrian people to choose their fate by himself from any form of external interference.”
Fear of the Syrian experience
Although the Tunisian President, Qais Said, reached power through the polls, in one of the most prominent experiences Arab Spring Democracy, his later domination amid widespread criticism of it by overcoming his powers and suppressing political life, in addition to his subsequent stances, revealed an apprehensive position on the success of the Arab Spring revolutions, as he attacked what he called “chaos” and “external conspiracies”.
From this standpoint, observers believe that it is not surprising that Said would stand the spectator’s position towards the experience of political change in Syria, especially as it came outside the frameworks that he liked, and expressed an liberation climate that does not correspond to his approach.
Tunisian researcher Al -Tayeb Ghilofi believes that Said is a “against Arab Spring From the beginning, “although he is one of his products, the architecture of the democratic transition that brought him to power was closed.
In his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, Ghilofi notes that Saeed and Assad are similar in their rejection of the demands of the revolutions, and if the means differ, adding, “The lion faced it with bloody repression, and the pursuit of the freezing of institutions and the coup against the constitution of the revolution.”
Gilofi pointed out that there is another dimension that explains the Tunisian reservation from the new authority in Syria, which is linked to a happy position on “political Islam”, which he opposes as a competitor to government, not as an Odini intellectual orientation, so he did not resort to eradicating the Islamists but rather faced them as political opponents.
In a report published by the Financial Times in December 2024, the newspaper confirmed that Arab countries, including Tunisia, warned of potential risks after the fall of Assad, citing failed experiences in Egypt and Libya, and the newspaper indicated that Tunisia sees the success of any democratic model challenging that may contribute to undermining internal stability.
A fog in Tunisian foreign policy
Tunisian foreign policy has been characterized since President Qais Saeed’s rise to rule in 2019 in a state of ambiguity, and a tendency towards retreat towards major Arab and regional issues, such as the position on the Libyan crisis, for example, and the position on the Palestinian conflict with Israeli occupation.
The official attitude towards the profound changes that ravaged the Assad regime, which the current Tunisian regime was standing in the side of one of the elements of the pivot to which some observers are based on their critical view of the confused foreign policy, while supporters of the Tunisian government believe that this position reflects a deliberate and a follower of a Tunisian diplomat not to interfere in state affairs.
In this context, Tunisian analyst Salah al -Din al -Jorishi tells Al -Jazeera Net that the Tunisian foreign policy found itself “in infiltration” when the Assad regime fell at that speed, explaining that it had neither a distance of advice nor sufficient information about the possibility of this deep change in Syria.
As for the Jorchi researcher, it was reflected in the official statement towards the lion’s fall by The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al -Sham “A faded and cold stance because the Tunisian political authority was under the shock and surprised by the authority in Damascus in the hands of groups that he considered the official position” terrorist and rogue law. “
In turn, Tunisian journalist Riyad Saqil explains this position that it stems from Tunisia’s keenness on the constants of its foreign policy, which was established since independence on not interfering and avoiding rushing and preserving a balanced diplomatic language.
Sakim notes in his interview with Al -Jazeera Net that a sudden change, such as what happened in Syria, is pushing Tunisia to wait, in order to avoid any situation that may harm its interests or future relations, especially in light of the continued conflict and the ambiguity of the scene, he said.
The Tunisian Foreign Ministry stressed in its statement issued on December 9th the need to differentiate between the state on the one hand and the political system that exists within it on the other hand.
The obsession of Tunisian jihadists
The file of Tunisian fighters who joined some armed groups in Syria is one of the most sensitive files between Damascus and Tunisia.
The Tunisians formed the highest percentage of foreign fighters in the ranks ISIS And other groups, which made – according to observers – any talk about a Tunisian rapprochement with the new Syrian administration surrounded by difficult questions related to accountability, delivery and position on the returnees.
With the collapse of the Assad regime, and some detainees were liberated from prisons, fears in Tunisia emerged from the return of these “fighters” to the country without supervision or accountability, according to what Tunisian journalist Riyad Saqim indicated, who believes that this development increases the complexity of the security scene, despite its confirmation of the readiness of the Tunisian army and security to deal with any possible threat, whether it is individual or collectively.
On the other hand, Tunisian researcher Tayeb Gilofi reduces the size of this threat, and believes that the file does not constitute a fundamental obstacle to the re -normalization of relationships. It indicates that most of the Tunisian fighters were within the Islamic State, and they are currently in prisons Syrian Democratic Forces “SDF”, while he is not a murderer with the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al -Sham.
He adds that the acceptance of the United States to integrate the opposition factions into security arrangements with the new Syrian government will drop any Tunisian argument to postpone the openness.
Observers believe that the Tunisian authorities facing an internal challenge on this file are afraid that a rapid rapprochement with the new authority in Damascus will lead to direct demands for security cooperation, or even hand over the wanted.
The new Damascus, which seeks to rebuild its legitimacy, may use this file for political pressure or to demand clear positions from the countries from which the fighters came.
The Sofan Group – a New York -based research organization that provides strategic security services for governments and multinational organizations – indicates that Tunisia comes first with the number of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq, as they numbered 6500 fighters, most of whom joined the ranks of the Islamic State.
It is noteworthy that the Tunisian authorities approved in early January, new measures to transfer flights coming from Turkey to a separate station from the main Carthage airport, in a move that observers see as a security nature, and aims to block the road to the possibility of returning elements that were fighting in Syria, especially after the fall of the ousted Assad regime.