At the first dawn hours of June 22, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced the implementation of a “very successful attack” on three main Iranian nuclear sites, claiming that these sites were completely destroyed, and that the Iranian nuclear program was delayed for years.
This was followed by the coordinated Iranian strike of the Qatari rule, then the ceasefire between Tehran and Tel Aviv under American sponsorship, and each party claimed victory over the other.
But only one week after this resounding announcement, American intelligence leaks began to reveal a completely different fact: the strike failed to achieve its strategic goals, and the Iranian nuclear program was not destroyed, as Washington and Tel Aviv claimed.
In fact, regardless of the validity of these leaks, which Trump is keen and managed to question them, there are information as facts that cannot be questioned:
- The first truth: Iran has about four hundred and eight kilograms of enriched uranium stock by 60 %, which is sufficient to make about 12 nuclear bombs, if its fertilization rate is raised to 90 %, but a “dirty bomb” can be made.
- The second fact: Iran has tens of thousands of centrifuges that can complete fertilization in a few weeks, noting that these centrifiers are a complete Iranian industry, which means that they have sufficient cognitive and technical capabilities to complete the full nuclear bomb production cycle.
- The third fact: Iran announced months ago that eight (new) places under establishment with various degrees of fertilization or the production of nuclear fuel, and made sure to keep their places secret, as the International Atomic Energy Agency previously stated, and President Masoud Bzshkian confirmed it later when he said: “There are alternative facilities under the ground that will enter service.”
- Fourth truth: The International Atomic Energy Agency, through one of its officials, said that Iranian officials- and months ago- had accompanied them to a secret place under the Fordo reactor, fortified at a depth of 800 meters, and they could not locate its place precisely from the large number of tunnels during which they walked.
This means in practice that all American bombs that were thrown had no effect on the reactor, except for the destruction of its entrances on the surface or even the destruction of some layers of protection without prejudice to the heart of the reactor or places that approach about a kilometer below the surface of the earth, which definitely transferred the Iranians uranium, or the expulsions or other parts and vital devices that can be transferred.
- Fifth truth: Iran’s missile power- in the least intelligence estimates- its arsenal reaches about three thousand ballistic missiles, and at the top to tens of thousands of various missiles.
The entity was launched about four hundred missiles, according to the official Israeli army’s statements, which means that the missile force is still full of efficiency.
This information is the reality that the American administration and the Zionist government have learned well, so calls for questioning the success of the American -Israeli strike from several parties around the world have increased their weight and scientific, political and military weight, which starts from this information that everyone knows, and that Trump and his team cannot overcome it, and that the most that they can are attempts to distract and question; In defense of the failure to achieve their declared goals.
Certainly, Iran lost a lot in this war and its nuclear program was affected by a way to doubt, but the declared goal of the Americans and the Zionists from this war was not achieved, and everyone knows this, which brings us to the second point.
Why was the war stopped if the goals were not achieved?
The direct reason is that the Israeli system of interceptor missiles was about to exist, which would make Iran’s sovereignty over the sky of the occupied entity as well, and the entity has become the air sovereignty over the sky of Iran through its fighters, as well as that the ability of the home front of the Zionist entity to absorb the successive Iranian strikes began to determine.
With the beginning of the Zionist strike of Iran, opinion polls showed a rate of support among the Israelis ranging from 70 % to 85 %, while in the last days of the war and with the increasing material and human losses, 65 % of the Israelis became demanding a ceasefire, according to internal opinion polls.
We may imagine how support will be if the Zionist Iron Dome missile system is running out and the atmosphere of the entity will be wide open to Iranian missiles. Let us become the next truth: Iran is still able to produce the nuclear bomb efficiently, and Israel faces a threat to an existential threat from the Iranian missile system, or from the bomb that you may be surprised at any time.
This also appeared in the statements of the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, ministers in the Netanyahu government and US officials, who said that Iran is able to restore its nuclear project in just a few months, to become Washington and Tel Aviv in front of two possibilities that have no third: either Iran is able to produce the bomb now and is only awaiting a political decision, or either it will regain its ability to produce it within a few months.
In both possibilities, according to Zionist and American national security data, the entity faces an existential danger.
Understanding players’ behavior
This failure to destroy the Iranian nuclear program or even neutralize it, also associated with the exacerbating legal crisis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which may end his political career permanently.
The Israeli Prime Minister is currently being tried in three serious corruption cases that include the charges of bribery, betrayal of trust and fraud, and he has already begun to testify before the court.
On June 27, the Israeli Central Court rejected the request of Netanyahu to postpone his trial, then returned and agreed to postpone the trial on Sunday, June 29, 2025, where it approved his request to postpone hearings in corruption cases, and canceled the sessions scheduled for June 30 and July 2.
In order to understand how the personal dimension is strongly present in the context, it is sufficient to know that Trump has stated more than once, the last of which was last June 29 saying: “Netanyahu’s trial must be canceled immediately, or a pardon was given a great hero, who did a lot for the state.
He also threatened to hold Israel accountable if this trial was not canceled, saying: “The United States” will not tolerate “with the continuation of the trial of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges.”
Trump’s public pressure on the Zionist judiciary is an unusual matter in the norms of states, which reveals the impact of Netanyahu’s trial on the paths of the war in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and that analyzes that talk about the great impact of the legal file of Netanyahu on the war are not like exaggeration or intimidation.
Another extremely important point; It is the exposure of the network of agents and spies at the Iranian interior with the Iran -Israeli war, which is the network that Israel built in years and is now subject to prosecution by the Iranian security services, which means that this network may be liquidated before Tel Aviv succeeded in destroying the Iranian nuclear program.
This makes her in a race against time to complete the mission before eliminating its customer network in Iran, who achieved a strong starting kick at the beginning of the war.
Accordingly, the Zionist and American national security from this perspective is in a real Iranian danger, as well as the personal reasons for Netanyahu who wants to continue the war to avoid trial, as the continued conflict gives him a justification for the continuous request to postpone the sessions and focus on “security priorities” as he did recently, and he said: There are important things that will happen soon in his recent request to postpone the trial.
The war helps him to maintain the cohesion of his coalition government, which may collapse in the event of peace, and lead to early elections that he may lose.
More importantly, the war gives Netanyahu an opportunity to photograph himself as a “war leader” defending Israel against existential threats, which may gain him the sympathy of Israeli public opinion, and reduces the impact of corruption issues on his popularity. This political tactic known as “Rally Around The Flag” was successfully used by Netanyahu in the past.
According to the previous data, the war scenario between Iran and Israel remains the most correct and close scenario in the next few months, and perhaps perhaps during the current summer as well.
Israel, which laid a strong military strike for a member of the United Nations, in violation of all international laws and norms, was not held accountable, but rather was justified by American sponsorship, which makes its appetite to fight an open new war. It is the security of punishment moved without deterrence or fear.
This war may not necessarily begin as the last round started, but it may begin in the form of unannounced attacks by the Zionist entity inside Iran through a series of assassinations or bombings in sensitive areas. It is the Iranian response to it that will determine the degree of escalation, and the size of the snowball that may roll quickly to ignite the entire region.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.