A state of controversy created by the words of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which he said: “Our goal from the new constitution is not to open a room for ourselves, so I have no obsession with re -nomination or progress again for the elections.” Sayings multiplied in their interpretation, in drawing future scenarios, and suddenly changed the course of political discussions in Türkiye.
However, these statements, contrary to what some commentators saw, do not express his unwillingness to run again, but rather indicate the great importance he attaches to amending the constitution.
The truth is that there is a secret that everyone knows in Türkiye: Erdogan intends to run in the upcoming elections.
The issue of the candidacy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been leading Turkey for 23 years (12 years old as prime minister, and 11 years of prime minister), has become unacceptable issues from every discussion about the general elections in the country.
From 2002 to 2014, Erdogan ruled Türkiye as prime minister under the parliamentary regime, then he was elected Prime Minister for the first time in 2014 according to the system. In 2018, Türkiye witnessed a fundamental shift in its political system, and moved under a constitutional amendment to the “presidential government” system.
According to Article 101 of the amended constitution, the conditions for candidacy for the presidency of the Republic as follows: “The President of the Republic is elected from among the members of the Turkish parliament who have exceeded forty years, or among the Turkish citizens who have the qualifications of the parliamentary candidacy, and he must have completed a high education.
The same article also stipulated that the candidate who gets the absolute majority (50 % + 1) of the votes win, and if no candidate gets this percentage, the elections will be returned after two weeks between the candidates with the highest number of votes, and whoever obtains the majority in the second round is elected president.
Under this constitution, Erdogan’s powers were exposed, and he was elected president of the 2018 elections that took place on two rounds. Hence the legal discussions: Is Erdogan, who was elected in 2014 and 2018, has the right to run for the third time in the 2023 elections? Especially in light of the material that prevents candidacy for more than twice.
But the Supreme Elections Council (YSK) considered that the condition of the “two states” began to be in force with the amendment of the constitution in 2018, so there is nothing to prevent Erdogan’s participation in the 2023 elections. Thus, the elections that took place for the first round on May 14, and the second on May 28, won 52 %, to start his third term in terms of number, but the second according to the new presidential system. Consequently, he will continue his duties until 2028, and thus he has held the presidency for 14 years at the end of his current period.
However, a new discussion surfaced: If the constitution does not allow nomination for more than two sessions, will Erdogan be able to run again in the 2028 elections?
According to the constitution, the elections are held in three ways: first, on its regular date, secondly, if Parliament (TBM) decides to early elections, and thirdly, if the president decides to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections. But if the President dissolves the parliament himself, he is not entitled to run. Accordingly, the only option to enable Erdogan to run again is for Parliament to make an early election.
According to Article 116 of the amended constitution in 2018, which is appointed to “early elections for the Turkish National Assembly and the Presidency of the Republic”:
“The Great Turkish National Assembly may decide to early elections by a majority of its total members, in which case the parliamentary and presidential elections are held together. If the president decides to early elections, parliamentary and presidential elections are also held together. If Parliament decides to early elections in the second term of the president, he may run again.”
Under this article, there is nothing to prevent Erdogan from running again if 360 voters out of 600 votes in Parliament in favor of the election renewal. Here lies the heart of the controversy.
The voices of the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) led by Erdogan, its partners in the “Public Alliance” (the National Movement MHP party, the Hüda Par Party, and the Democratic Left Party DSP) are only 325 deputies. That is, the coalition needs 35 additional votes to pass the “Election Renewing” decision that enables Erdogan to run again.
One of the scenarios is the possibility of “transferring deputies” from other blocs. In the 2023 elections, the number of coalition deputies was 321, and later rose to 325. Although the possibility of 35 deputies from other weak blocs, it is not impossible, especially in light of the rapprochement between the coalition and the “Democratic Peoples Party” (Dem), which owns 56 deputies.
The main opposition (CHP CHP) announced its willingness to support the decision to “renew the elections” provided that it is held in the fall of 2025. Although this position opens the theoretical road to Erdogan, his actual plan varies.
As we indicated from the beginning, the matter is no longer a secret: Erdogan aims to hold early elections by a decision of Parliament in the fall of 2027, to be re -elected president until 2032.
This position not only reflects Erdogan’s will and his party, but also the will of his allies: the leader of the National Movement Party, Oatt Hutchli, and the Hüda Par and DSP party. Also, a wide fan base in support of Erdogan wants to re -election.
Erdogan needs only 35 additional deputies to secure the decision to “renew the elections” that allows him to run, a small number in numerical terms, but it is difficult to reach under Turkish political conditions.
However, it remains possible in light of the possibility of representatives from other parties, or support from Dem, especially after 23 Dem’s deputies supported to elect the Justice and Development Party candidate, Noman Gortlemoush, to preside over Parliament by a majority of 329 votes, indicating that they also support their support for the “election renewal” decision.
All this brings to mind the saying of former Turkish President Suleiman Demirer: “Twenty -four hours in politics is very long.”
Türkiye still has a long time until the upcoming elections, and transformations may lead to the opposition parties to support Erdogan’s candidacy for a third time, if the circumstances are mature.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.